irrational investor

Keagan 2022-04-21 09:01:15

After reading it again, I think the most difficult thing is to believe in myself, I believe that everyone is drunk and I wake up alone, rather than my own misjudgment. It is especially difficult to deny when everyone says yes. The difficulty lies in whether the belief is strong enough, and the difficulty lies in self-doubt. Is it me, or is it most people? Before, I always felt that I was going against the market, and what was lacking was the belief in gamble with everything and gamble. It is only now that I can see that all actions against the market are just my own choices after careful consideration. And the premise of all this is that what you see and insist on acknowledging is really the truth after all the whitewashing, betting on 1% with 99%, rather than betting on 99% with 1%. From this logic, being a risk averse is not a bad thing, which is why I am so cautious about risk, but love VCs. The real prudence is to be able to see the opportunity clearly, and when the real opportunity comes, use the 99% prediction accumulated by oneself to fight for a correct, verifiable and general outcome. In the capital world, everyone thinks about their own interests. Irrational investment and various financial tools that cut leeks have turned investment into a game of drumming and passing flowers. The competition of who is the fastest is extremely ridiculous, and the final casualty is heavy. So everything returns to the essence. In textbooks, it is always the assumption of a perfect capital market, and investors are completely rational. Wise people always live in books, but in reality they are full of hotheaded fools. Rather than trusting these "experts", I trust money to think for itself.

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Extended Reading
  • Eriberto 2022-03-19 09:01:02

    I tried a very B-station script and editing style for this kind of film that requires professional knowledge. A lot of jumping in and out is also very interesting. However, with the help of a large number of subtitles, comments and barrage, I can’t fully understand the ins and outs. For me, I deeply feel the torment of going to the cinema to watch this movie, and I don't agree with such a style of commercial war movie. In addition, compared to the nominated Bell, he thinks Carell has contributed a better performance.

  • Hunter 2022-03-21 09:01:12

    It is not easy to explain such a boring and complicated thing in finance. The editing is quite fancy, but as far as the movie is concerned, it is just average. After reading it, I felt a kind of sadness. ★★★☆

The Big Short quotes

  • JP Morgan Employee: Ted had asked me to do some meeting prep but I couldn't find any marketing material on you guys.

    Charlie Geller: Oh, we just moved here from Boulder.

    JP Morgan Employee: Yeah. Well, can we see your offering documents

    Charlie Geller: Well, Brownfield is its own money.

    Jamie Shipley: It's our money.

    JP Morgan Employee: Well, can you tell us how much you manage?

    Charlie Geller: Of course. We're doing 30 million right now, uh, but we started four years ago with 110 thousand. So, as you can see, that's pretty phenomenal returns.

    Jamie Shipley: We want to get an ISDA agreement so we can deal in long-term options.

    [subtitled: ISDA Agreement: An agreement that lets an investor sit at the 'big boy table' and make high level trades not available to stupid amateurs.Trying to be a high stakes trader without an ISDA is like trying to win the Indy 500 riding a llama]

    JP Morgan Employee: [in a slightly condescending tone] That's really cool. That is SO cool.

    Charlie Geller: Thank you.

    JP Morgan Employee: But, uh... you guys are under the capital requirements for an ISDA.

    JP Morgan Employee: By how much?

    JP Morgan Employee: [thinking] Uh... how much? One billion, four hundred seventy million. So... a lot.

    Charlie Geller: This makes us look bad, doesn't it? That we didn't know what the capital requirements were?

    JP Morgan Employee: Uh... it's not great. But keep up those returns and give us a call way down the line, you know. Okay?

  • Mortgage Broker: So, is Morgan Stanley recruiting us? Is that...

    Porter Collins: Oh, no. No. The bank owns our hedge fund but we're not really a part of it. We invest in financial service companies and we're trying to understand the residential mortgage business.

    Mark Baum: How many loans do you write each month?

    Mortgage Broker: Pffft! About sixty.

    Mark Baum: What was it four years ago?

    Mortgage Broker: Ten... maybe fifteen.

    Mortgage Broker: Yeah, I was a bartender. Now I own a boat.

    Danny Moses: You own a boat? So how many of these are, uh, adjustable rate mortgages?

    Mortgage Broker: Well, most. Yeah, I'd say about ninety percent. The bonuses on those skyrocketed a few years ago. Adjustables are our bread and honey.

    Danny Moses: So do applicants ever get rejected?

    Mortgage Broker: [laughs] Seriously? Look, if they get rejected, I suck at my job.

    Danny Moses: Even if they have no money?

    Mortgage Broker: Well, my firm offers NINJA loans - no income, no job. I just leave the income section blank if I want. Corporate doesn't care. These people just want homes, you know, and they just go with the flow.

    Danny Moses: Good for you.

    Mark Baum: Your companies don't verify?

    Mortgage Broker: If I write a loan on Friday afternoon, big bank will buy it by Monday lunch.