The movie moneyball tells the story of a man trying to challenge authority.
Baseball has 144 games in a season, not including the playoffs. MLB should have a total of over one hundred and eighty games.
Basically, the game is played seven days and six days a week, and the game is played frequently during the season of the year, unlike football, which is played once a week, and the frequency is extremely high.
The winning factor in any ball game is "scoring" and "not losing."
In baseball, a good pitcher can account for 70% of the defense. In the movie, they analyzed the pitcher's defense rate through data, and selected a pitcher with an excellent defense rate, but it was underestimated because of its special low-shoulder side throwing posture. pitcher, this is a typical representative.
In fact, they should have selected six or seven people on the starting rotation using such a rule.
Pick people based on defense percentage, or ERA, and the manager does it. What the coach needs to do is to arrange these pitchers with excellent defensive ratios and who can not easily lose points according to their state and the characteristics of their hitters.
As for scoring, there are slugging percentage, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, batting percentage for different types of balls, batting average for inside and outside corners of the strike zone, high and low balls, and so on.
The failure of the male protagonist Billy in his career made him realize that an all-rounder who is said to be "playable", "able to run" and "able to defend" does not necessarily mean that he will perform well.
It is possible that he has great power and good posture and can hit long distances, but has a low batting rate. It's possible that he can hit when there's no one on base, and not score when there's a man on base. It is also possible that this person's psychological quality is not good, and he is prone to lose his calm in key situations, always hitting bad balls and putting good balls.
For a variety of reasons, he ended his career early despite his excellent talent.
The baseball league only gets everything by winning, and winning is more important than anything. Only by winning can you get a big raise, extend your contract, and continue to develop the team. The scout's assessment of the players in the film is that a good face can attract audiences to buy tickets, run fast to steal bases, and hit a home run with a lot of strength, but even if they are handsome, an e can make the audience angrily curse their mothers. , even if you can steal bases if you run fast, it's useless if you can't hit the bases. The premise of hitting a home run with a lot of strength is that you can hit the ball.
In short, Billy chose the right thing and not the person, because he knew that if you put a group of stars together, it does not mean that you can achieve 1+1>2, because the efficiency of this combination is not necessarily very high.
Why is Billy so insistent on Chubby's new theory, and where does his courage come from?
They are already at the bottom, they can't afford stars without money, and the success rate of cultivating new stars is low, and it will take several years. He himself is an example of a failed cultivation.
His memories are depicted many times in the film.
Back then, he was highly rated by scouts, a rare talent in the football world, a player with the potential to become an All-Star, and a lucrative contract.
He thought of how sincere the scouts at the time had said to him, "We want to add you to the team's building program," which is undoubtedly the highest compliment for someone who dreams of becoming a professional player. This also convinced him at the time of his ability that he gave up a full scholarship to Stanford University.
Now that I think about it, those people don't need to be responsible for his future at all. They did everything possible to poach themselves, but wrongly estimated their future and turned him into a high school graduate who only lost his scouting and professional athlete status. "loser".
Therefore, Billy is deeply suspicious of the selection criteria that scouts have maintained for more than 20 years. He wants to change the status quo, but he can't find a way for a while. It was Xiao Chuan who made him encounter a feasible method.
He is well aware of the embarrassing situation that professional players will face when they leave the professional world, so perhaps with a bit of responsibility for the players, he hopes to select players who can really make a difference and achieve a win-win situation for the team and the players. Instead of "irresponsibly" taking some players into the professional world in their best youth, without giving them any guarantees (or false guarantees) about the future. He didn't want his "tragedy" to repeat itself many times.
In addition, even if you cultivate good ones, they will be stolen by people. This goes on and on, and the team can never change the status quo. Small teams have small teams, and you can't "do what the Yankees did and get knocked down by the Yankees."
So he chose to break the boat and adopt a new theory. It's not just imaginary, it's justified. Now it seems that cross-disciplinary crossover is common, but more than a decade ago, people still believed that professional people doing their own business is the most effective. In fact, Billy only realized after the evaluation that instead of relying on the illusory miracle of cultivating stars, the actual statistical probability is more reliable.
The above three points prompted Billy to insist on the theory that he chose Xiao Chuan. It can be said that his choice and wisdom were forced by reality, and it was his struggle.
So whether a person can persevere when no one in the world believes it, and whether he believes in what he believes in, becomes the theme of the film's narrative.
But believe it, but don't believe it too much. Don't ignore the experience left by the past just because you are completely caught up in the theory of moneyball.
So the playoff loss proves that the theory he's sticking to is still immature.
If his theory is completely the truth of winning, then how does the sentence "there are dreams in baseball" exist?
It is precisely because the statement that the game has just started after the first half and the second half of the ninth innings has been eliminated, just proves the uncontrollability of people.
For example, in the last game of the 20-game winning streak, a hitter who was regarded as a walker and a hitter who never expected a home run. In other words, his home run rate could be as low as possible.
But hitting a home run at this very moment is a miracle.
It also proves that Billy's beliefs are impossible to fully support the 20-game winning streak.
Perhaps Billy's staying in Oakland is exploring his theories without giving up. Although the theory is useful, it is not omnipotent. People must constantly break through the existing inherent authority and be brave in innovation. He was only one step closer to the truth, but still failed to touch the truth.
It's a cliché, but it's even harder to do.
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