Make bold assumptions, verify carefully

Nicholas 2022-09-17 04:50:26

I like to watch suspenseful and reasoning works, and I like the feeling of having an intellectual contest with the author/screenwriter/director while watching. It's a pity that after reading it, most of the time it's in the mood of "Are you kidding me", a few in the mood of "even though there are bugs but I can understand it", and occasionally in the mood of "the analysis is right! We are all good", very few Rarely have the feeling of "Wow, that's how it turned out, I didn't expect it, I got it!".

Now I'm looking forward to True Detective allowing me to experience that last situation.

The appreciation of literature and music is hidden in the bottom of my heart without shame. Here I simply analyze and predict the plot.

(1) The old man
in the police station The old man in the police station, not the immediate boss of Marty and Rust, always wears a blue uniform. I don't know much about the style of police uniforms in the US, but judging by Marty's salute to him and the fact that he always follows Biily Tuttle, it should be a higher position than Marty's boss. chief Police officer?

There is basically no doubt that the murderer - or the core members of this cult organization - should be five people. A Ledoux, who was in charge of drug production, and Dewall, a deputy who was in charge of base affairs management and external liaison, were shot by Marty and Runt respectively, leaving 3 of them. Billy Tuttle must be one of them, and I think so is this old police officer. Look, there are so many similar cases, and most of them have been suppressed, indicating that there must be someone in the police station, and it is a high-level organization. When Rust expressed his doubts about Billy Tuttle in his Boss' office, his Boss reacted in disbelief, fury, and a little bit of contempt, but the old man's expression and eyes were very gloomy. Combined with his appearance at the state police station with Billy at the beginning of the Dora case, it is judged that he is one of the five core members.

FUN FACT: At the beginning of the first episode, someone set fire to Erath. It was because of the fire that the local police station was alerted and reported to the state police station, so the case was not suppressed and was forced to see the light. Combined with the fact that it was Rust's daughter's birthday, I judged that the arsonist was Rust. The reasons will be described in detail later.

(2) The Giant
As a high-level suspense drama, and it has already been put into the sixth episode, the final big Boss must be someone who has appeared, shown his face, or at least been mentioned before. Otherwise, it is too insulting to the IQ of the audience and the screenwriter.

Kelly, a girl who was rescued from a drug base, mentioned that the worst is a Giant, with Scar. When Rust asks if it's Scar in the face, the girl goes hysterical and doesn't answer. Among all the people who have appeared in the first 6 episodes, there is no one who can be called a Giant and whose identity is sufficiently suspicious, than Billy Tuttle. Of course, there is no Scar on his face. There are two possibilities for this: ① Scar is not on his face, but on a certain part of his body; ② Billy is very cautious. In order to prevent survivors from revealing their identity, he specially created Scar when he did evil. look to wash away suspicion.

Although the former is reasonable, it may not be big, because Rust asks "is it the Scar on the face" as soon as he opens his mouth, and does not ask other parts, it seems that he already has a Giant suspect with a scar on his face in mind; The latter, based on the fact that 5 people who are very close to each other frequently commit crimes together and are of a religious nature, it is very unlikely that they will wear makeup every time.

Then, the possibility that Edwin Tuttle is the Scar Giant is very high. First, he and Billy are cousins, and it is quite possible that they have the same body type; second, this character has not yet appeared, and therefore, the possibility of Scar on his face cannot be ruled out.

Billy's "substance abuse" death after Rust's eight-year re-emergence, the Lake Charles case took place after his death, shows that Billy was not the top leader of the organization. The cause of his death, whether Rust found substantial evidence, Billy committed suicide in desperation, or Rust was close to finding some evidence, Billy was killed by other members of the organization, there was little difference in essence, it proved that he was not the top leader of the organization . In terms of status, who can overpower him? Who can bring together the top religious leaders of the state and the top law enforcement officers? The three giants of political and religious law jointly cooperated, and the pomp is big enough.

At the same time, because this is a bit too good to guess, I suspect that the big boss other than the old police station and Billy Tuttle may not be the governor but someone else, a very unexpected person... More on this later (Forgive me for always being suspicious and expecting too much).

(3) Marty
is the second male lead, and the pony has been weak so far. All kinds of typical male inferiors appear almost without landing. The only bright spot is probably shooting Ledoux directly when he sees the tortured child, expressing his desire to protect and love the child. The look in the eyes of his two sleeping daughters in the first episode, the money and advice he gave to the young prostitute, and the lynching after knowing that the eldest daughter had fooled around with the two boys, all emphasized this point.

More importantly, it is incredible that the second male protagonist has such a weak sense of participation in the main plot. He is Rust's partner, and his eldest daughter has witnessed cult rituals since she was a child, so he must and will be deeply involved in the main line in the future. In what form of participation, for example, knowing what the eldest daughter saw when she was a child, and why she fell into adulthood, so as to agree to cooperate with Rust?

A darker guess is that it was not the eldest daughter who prompted him to participate, but the very good, very docile and excellent little daughter. The role of his youngest daughter is so inconsistent, I always feel that something should happen. The eldest daughter already has obvious signs, and it is not surprising that there is a problem in the end. On the contrary, if the younger daughter has something, it will bring a greater impact to the audience. Well, I'm really guessing on this one, based on "if I were a screenwriter".


(4) Rust
has finally arrived at the male lead I want to analyze in detail.

I'm 100% confident that Rust is investigating this case for revenge. for family.

There are three different possibilities:
① After his daughter died, his wife turned to the power of religion in pain, joined a cult, and was finally killed.
② His daughter was killed by this cult.
③ His daughter did not die in a car accident, but was killed by his wife who participated in the cult and injected drugs. There is another branch: his wife is involved in a cult and is addicted to drugs, and she doesn't take good care of the child, causing her daughter to be killed in a car accident, which Rust sees as being killed by his wife.

Because it is a planned revenge, it can fully explain: Rust's understanding of religion and life; indifference to other people's suffering but only extremely persistent in this case; familiarity with Yellow King and related anthropological religious knowledge; why only Asked to come to the state to be a homicide cop, and soon after he arrived, the Erath case was exposed (compare the arson at the beginning of the first episode); throughout the case, he found valuable clues, even putting Fontnott The girl’s case was very far-fetched, but it turned out that there was indeed a connection in the end; it seemed that there was contact with ledoux; after the case was solved, he finally returned to a normal life, and even considered starting a family again; after discovering that the Yellow King actually still exists, he quickly Break away from "normal life".

The possibility of the first item is similar to that of the second item, both of which are reasonable, but also have fatal flaws: if the first item is true, the importance and symbolic meaning of "daughter" will be infinitely weakened, and the reason for Rust's revenge is to "wife". This is unreasonable. From the details of the plot, it is his daughter who has a greater influence on Rust. Rust's recollections of his daughter are bitter and depressing, but still willing to speak; never mentioning the name or even the word "wife" directly to his wife, simply saying "marriage didn't last long". Erath chose to set fire to his daughter's birthday instead of A certain anniversary of the wife, etc.
The second is that the child was only 2 years old when he died, which is too young and does not meet the age range that the cult has always aimed for.

The third item is very likely, because it can reasonably explain more plots than the first two: ① He killed an addict who injected drugs into his children. For Rust, who has always been calm and even aloof, there must be a reason for this loss of control. ② He was transferred to the anti-drug team after the death of his daughter, not after the divorce. It should be out of hatred for drug addicts and drug dealers, the so-called public revenge. ③ When he suggested Maggie's marriage, he said, Kids are the only things that matter. Men, women-- it's not supposed to work; ④ After he made a confession of a criminal who serially murdered his own children, he coldly suggested her to commit suicide. It was only because she "suggested suicide" that she controlled herself and remained calm, maybe because she didn't use drugs, maybe because Rust has been precipitating for many years, and the pain is not as sharp as it used to be... But that doesn't mean that this plot is worthless. As an excellent suspense work, there should not be any scene or plot that is useless.

(5) Yellow King
Anyway, as far as the first 6 episodes are concerned, this drama is already one of my favorite suspense works. The final rating is "very good," "anticlimactic," or "beyond The Seven Deadly Sins," depending on who the Yellow King is and how he ends up.

To speculate on Yellow King's real body, I don't think it is necessary to consider the physical characteristics of Giant and Scar. The most important clues are the origin, purpose, and "core values" of the organization.

The Yellow King was able to maintain a core position even with the top leadership of the state's religion and law in the organization, and had life-or-death power over other core members. (PS, I think the buddies Ledoux and Dewall were abandoned by the Yellow King: Dewall died so strangely, who would carry a bomb on him that could detonate at any time? ① To prevent him from escaping or leaking secrets. Not likely, both He is already a core member, and Ledoux didn't bring him. ② Maybe Rust missed him, he was headshot by other members of the organization hidden somewhere with a sniper rifle and other weapons, and successfully silenced Rust.) As a In such a cult, the needs of its members will never depend on what the world values: money, status, or even drugs. As Dewall mentioned, neither money nor drugs worked for him. Among these people, Ledoux is responsible for making drugs, ensuring some religious effects required by the ceremony and attracting members; Billy Tuttle is responsible for providing sacrifices; the old man of the police station is responsible for protecting the safety of the organization; Dewall is responsible for managing the base, laying hands on and supervising Ledoux, and some must directly Outreach affairs. And Yellow King, as the most important core and spiritual leader, he must provide the "meaning of existence" of this organization, and no one else can. From this point of view, Yellow King is no more likely to be governor than a weeder.

From the most simple and rude Edwin Tuttle, to the unexpected but seemingly difficult to rationalize a passer-by (such as the monastery lawn mower, Marty's father-in-law, Marty's father-in-law), or shocking but there is considerable room for rationalization A certain split personality of Rust, or even Marty of "Are you kidding me", I've thought about it.

If it were Edwin Tuttle, the show's place in history would be basically inextricable from "The Seven Deadly Sins" (excluding other huge plot variables).

If it is Rust itself, I think there is room for rationalization. For example, after the death of Rust's daughter, he was very distressed and turned to religion for spiritual comfort; with his thinking ability, artistic talent and pessimistic personality, it is also understandable to create a cult doctrine. Moreover, he "couldn't sleep, only dreamed", with hints of schizophrenia; the totems seen in the wilderness have strong metaphors; Rust's five little people folded out of beer cans are said to be testing whether two black police officers are organized Chinese, I think it can also be interpreted as a subconscious outpouring of Rust.
But there is one point that is far-fetched: Rust and other members of the meeting plot, he and Dewall, Ledoux, the old man of the police station, Billy Tuttle, these four iron core members have intersections. It is still possible to force an explanation. For example, the split personality of Rust as Yellow King knows the existence of the main personality (of course the main personality does not know the existence of split personality), and has already informed the other members. So Dewall said that he had a devil in his eyes and a shadow on his body. When he was pointed at by a gun, he was very at a loss and didn't know how to react; The troublemakers do nothing, let it go, and don't even obstruct the investigation; Ledoux seems to know Rust and keeps repeating "it's a cycle", perhaps implying that both the creation and the end of this organization will be done by Rust.
In short, if you want to go to this conclusion, the road is clear, the key is to see whether it is beautiful. If the plot is well laid out, it can achieve perfect plausibility. Because at least so far, there has been no absolute logical contradiction with this conclusion.

If the big boss is Marty, I do think "are you kidding me?", but I can't say it's completely unacceptable, after all, it's a foreshadowing that his daughter saw cult rituals when she was young. But in terms of personality characteristics, I don't think he has the ability to provide "religious spirit".

After discussing these popular candidates, it is the "surprise candidate". For example, Marty's husband, Jack, some people think that Marty's eldest daughter may be led by him to participate in cult ceremonies; such as weeding workers; also, I think Rust's father is also an interesting candidate. The organization founded by his father indirectly caused the death of his granddaughter, Ending it with a son also fully explains why the group never takes action against Rust, and embodies Ledoux's "it's a cycle" statement.

Finally, I'm now looking forward to the next two episodes every day with anticipation. Episode 7 should still not reveal the Yellow King's identity, but should rule out most of the options. My biggest hope is that the last two episodes must hold up! This year's "Favorite Show" is counting on it.

Last but not least, thank you all for watching this nonsense comment. Welcome to point out mistakes and omissions, and discussing and analyzing possible plot developments with friends has always been the most interesting part of watching suspenseful works.

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Extended Reading

True Detective quotes

  • Detective Ray Velcoro: If you ever bully or hurt anybody again, I'll come back and butt fuck your father with your mom's headless corpse on this goddamn lawn.

  • Detective Ray Velcoro: Sometimes a good beating provokes personal growth.