After watching the movie, my first reaction was the title.
Yi Xiaoying's victory
On January 11, 2020, the results of the election in Taiwan were released. "Xiaoying" defeated Han Guoyu by more than 2 million votes, and broke Ma Ying-jeou's record in 2008 with 8.17 million votes, becoming the winner with the most votes since the election in Taiwan. elect.
Under the heavy reward, there is a "courageous woman", and the high-spirited "Xiaoying", wrapped in the votes of the public, said in an interview with the BBC: "We have no need to declare independence, because we are already an independent country, and we call ourselves '' Taiwan, Republic of China'".
But is Taiwan ready to become independent in the international community?
In the BBC's manuscript, on the morning of the 15th, it was written "We call ourselves the Republic of China Taiwan", and it was corrected to "The Republic of China (Taiwan)" in the afternoon. It seems that "Xiaoying" is once again frantically testing the edge of declaring "Taiwan independence" through word games.
"Xiaoying" was happy when she tried frantically, but will the people of Taiwan also gain happiness under her guidance? There is an interesting phenomenon. After Tsai Ing-wen won the election, the voices discussing "Wu Reunification" on Weibo increased significantly. It can be seen that in the hearts of mainland people's hearts for Taiwan's return, the reunification of the motherland is not just the country in the official press release. Interest is also an inherent need in the national DNA, so that a considerable part of the people are willing to take the extreme method of force in their hearts.
shadow of war
Putting aside the interests of politicians, as the main parties, the attitude of the people on the island towards "independence" and "army reunification" should be the helmsman of the Taiwan authorities' government policies. "Xiaoying" seems to be sailing fast along the monsoon of public opinion, acting happily and accelerating "independence". As for the threat of war brought by "independence", the clever "Xiaoying" also created a set of "Golden Bell Jars". In the media statement after winning the election, "Xiaoying" claimed to be ready to defend himself, "but the more important thing is to get international support for you... I think we have good military capabilities, and it is for China to invade Taiwan. The price is very high.” Can read the defense strategy of "Xiaoying", namely self-defense and other defense.
Judging from the comparison of the military strength of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, self-defense is obviously a matter of hitting a stone with an egg, and it is completely over. "Xiaoying"'s unique trick can only be his defense. From the perspective of the international social environment and military strength, this "he" can only be selected by the United States. From this point of view, "Xiaoying"'s anti-China defense strategy is to be close to the "big American". This leads to the theme of this article, why it is said that the Taiwanese people should cut their seats with the "Taiwan independence elements", there is only one concern, and that is the death of war.
From the perspective of "Xiaoying", at the moment of the decisive battle, there are two main possibilities to fall back on the United States, one is to deter and stop the war, and the other is to win the war. Deterrence is actually psychological warfare. The opponent will show some cards to the opponent to see who can hold back first and then give up. This is a common tactic in the game of the international community. "Xiaoying" hopes to rely on the United States to prevent war, that is, to use the United States to besiege China in military, economic, diplomatic and other fields, increase the cost of China's war, and force China to give up the use of force in order to achieve Taiwan's de facto independence. But the success of the war of deterrence depends on two conditions. One is the cost that the United States is willing to invest. In order to raise the cost of launching a war for China, the U.S. must invest in advance to raise the threshold for China’s intervention; the other is the cost that China is willing to invest. How much the people are willing to sacrifice to deal with Taiwan independence. At present, for the issue of reunification of the motherland, the mainland people can quickly gather the national will to share the same hatred of the enemy, which also determines that the deterrence of war has little effect.
Since the deterrent effect of war is ineffective, the future of "Taiwan independence" can only lead to war. Fortunately, the U.S. military strength is strong, and "Xiaoying" also has the second sustenance of the logic of "big daddy will not lose" - the United States helps fight, win the war, and achieve independence. Who wins and who loses in war This article is not going to debate, we only focus on: Are the people of Taiwan ready to turn Taiwan Island into a battlefield? Perhaps the word "war" is unfamiliar to the vast majority of people on both sides of the strait, and they cannot empathize with the tragic consequences of war in their hearts, nor can they recognize the unbearable weight of this result for individuals.
Three chess players and pawns
In fact, the international community has provided Taiwan with a sample of thinking, and it is not necessary to look far, such as North Korea and South Korea, friends from the north. The Korean people are sober and profound about their position in the game of the North Korean nuclear issue. The movie "Iron Rain", which was released in South Korea at the end of 2017, attracted much attention because of its conception of the nuclear crisis and conflict on the peninsula. It exceeded one million viewers within two days of its release. It is worth pondering about the attitude of the United States to its allies in the nuclear conflict in North Korea.
When North Korea was planning for nuclear unity and preemptive strikes, the United States intervened at the first time and attempted to use its military superiority to attack North Korea with nuclear bombs. At this time, the South Korean "peace negotiator" objected, proposing that the distance between North and South Korea is so close, attacking North Korea with a nuclear bomb would damage the More than North Korea? But under the leadership of politicians trying to make political achievements, the peninsula has accelerated into a crisis of war.
North Korea: I have nuclear, I want to unify, I want to destroy South Korea.
Korea: Boss save me.
United States: Don't be afraid, Xiao Han, I have a B-52 long-range bomber, and I also have a nuclear bomb.
North Korea: If you come to meddle, old America, then I will hit Japan with a nuclear bomb.
Japan: I'll go, what kind of grudge.
United States: Xiao Han, North Korea is going to hit Japan with a nuclear bomb, so I can't help you.
South Korea: If you don't help me, North Korea will hit me.
United States: Then you get over it.
South Korea:***.
Although the film is fictional, it reflects the calm thinking of the Korean people about their own security during the crisis on the peninsula. The asylum provided by the United States for the interests of the alliance can also be cancelled based on the interests of the alliance. extravagance.
Taiwanese people should also think about the outcome of the crisis in the Taiwan Strait. If there is a conflict, Taiwan Island will become a battlefield, and the land on which the people depend for survival is just a chessboard for the great powers to play. Just like the scene in the movie "Iron Rain", the nuclear bombs that the United States and North Korea attacked each other eventually exploded in the waters near Japan. If Taiwan becomes a battlefield for the game between China and the United States, there will be no eggs under the overturned nest, and a speck of ashes from the times will be a mountain on an individual's head.
Even if the war is won, but the city you live in is devastated and scorched, not to mention that there is a war with sacrifices, and who can ensure that his family can survive this war.
The interests of the people and politicians are different, and the needs of the Taiwanese people have never been war.
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