In this early autumn season, the days are as cold as winter. Today, I finally finished watching "Too Big to Fail". Sometimes I always feel that good luck is tricking people. I ride on the time train in 2018, but the past events of 2008 are always It is vivid. When we stand outside the film and re-examine the past, even if we never believed in the so-called fatalism before, the current experience really makes people feel that the power of the cycle is still in control of the trajectory of destiny. Who will God forgive?
Since the 15-year frenzy of the stock market began to pay attention, in just three years, I have witnessed a total of 20 thousand shares falling limit. It should be said that almost all the violent fluctuations in the market have been seen. Maybe the triggers are different, but Human panic is always strikingly similar. From the pessimism of the whole people at the beginning to the now standing aside, the subtle changes in mood are also reflected in public opinion. In fact, when I think back to the opening monologue of "Peking Man in New York", I think it is indeed right. If you love him, let him go to New York, because it is heaven. If you hate him, let him go to New York, because there is hell. The U.S. stock market plummeted overnight. I think many Americans have once again experienced a panic from heaven to hell. New York is the world's financial center. Participants in the NYSE are always reincarnated in the alternation of heaven and hell.
Today, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the previous low point and fell below the limit of 1,000 shares again. I think many people did not expect such a scene. Now this situation is the first time for most people to experience it. Of course, I hope this is the case. The only time in my life, when I look back on the past, I have no regrets in my life, but this experience is a bit embarrassing.
Nowadays, it is no longer necessary to talk about feelings when we face reality, but how serious the current problem is or where the root cause of lack of confidence is, we can't get a clear expectation, and we only hear about stability and improvement, and risks are controllable all day long. However, the so-called six words of stable shape, good potential, and high quality are word for word. The thousand-share price limit has always been a nightmare for retail investors or institutions in recent years. In the past, Duanzi always liked to joke about a passage in the southern speech, saying that capitalism in the securities market can be done, socialism can also be done, and it doesn’t matter if it doesn’t work. , you can close it directly. Of course, the capital market has developed to this day, and it is obviously unrealistic to say that it is directly closed. We may have already experienced the 2008 that we are experiencing now, so we should now reflect on what we have done right and what we have done wrong since 2008.
On the one hand, the capital market has developed into an important financing venue. No matter how you complain that IPO is a vampire, it has indeed become an effective financing channel for enterprises in addition to credit. In a sense, it is indeed in the In support of the real economy, the words of President Xiaochuan last week of the 15th National People's Congress are also true. In addition, with the increase in the total market capitalization of the capital market, my country's capital market has surpassed Japan to become the second largest capital market in the world. Although we always say that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rises to zero every ten years, if we look at the whole market index, In fact, the overall return on capital in these years has not been low. It should be said that apart from savings, wealth management products and real estate, the capital market as an asset management channel is not as bad as we think. Although it is not as profitable as the real estate market, the capital market still has a certain value of appreciation and preservation. These are the things we can see done right, and the things to love.
However, we still have to reflect on what we have done wrong. We have noticed that the index has always been skyrocketing and falling in recent years. The bulls are short and bears are long. Such capital markets are obviously not stable enough. Compared with other mature markets, our markets are often ineffective. , so does our system create market inefficiencies? This is what we should reflect on first. Secondly, it is always said that A-shares are ATMs for a few people. The original shareholders always take cash out as the ultimate goal. Hot money is also a means of raising arbitrage. One of the reasons, and this is the second point we have to reflect on. At the same time, Securities Finance Corporation played the role of a stabilization fund during the stock market crash, and then sold high and sold low to become a control tool. Compared with the bailout funds in Japan and Hong Kong, frequent transactions interfered with the normal operation of the securities market, which obviously exceeded its limits. Perhaps the official We think that man will win the day, but the current trend may be disappointing enough, so the positioning of Securities Finance Corporation is the third point we need to reflect on. At the same time, compared with other countries, the proportion of direct financing in my country is still relatively low, and there is still enough room for asset securitization, but whether the current issuance system matches the goal of asset securitization, whether we can implement the registration system, and whether we can absorb foreign advanced Experience, whether the progress will affect the stability of the financial market, the reform of the China Securities Regulatory Commission will also become a question, and these are the places to worry.
Finally, let’s briefly talk about the future. If you really believe in Daqing Pills at this time, I think I would have changed my green banknotes and traveled around the world with a green card. Since we were born and grew up here, we definitely hope that tomorrow will be better, so we always believe that as long as we don’t go back, we can avoid the tragedy of the past from repeating itself. At the same time, only by insisting on reform can we have a broader space for development. Back in the movie, when the financial oligarchs on Wall Street were helpless in the face of the falling market, when the Federal Reserve, the Securities Regulatory Commission and the Treasury Department walked hand in hand but felt powerless to recover, the sense of despair was felt across the big screen. Can you feel it, and isn't that what we're facing? Although it is definitely a lie to say not to be pessimistic about the current situation, but not despair may be the proper attitude. After all, all human wisdom is contained in these two words: waiting and hope.
The mobile phone code is also tired, barely counted as a film review, in order to commemorate the 20th thousand-share limit, and it is also the last attitude towards the capital market.
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