First of all, the analysis of this article is only based on TV dramas, and all the elements mentioned in the novels but not shown in the dramas (except the background) are not within the scope of the author's consideration.
Secondly, the deep-seated reasons for the rise and fall of countries and the success or failure of wars naturally lie in the system and historical trends. After historical materialism has become the mainstream, this is almost certain. The author also agrees, but the personalities of historical figures who promote the development of history do play a role in influencing the course of history. The contingency may also determine the course of history, as Quentin's "Inglourious Basterds" expresses such thoughts. Therefore, the analysis of characters' personalities is necessary, but ultimately superficial.
Closer to home, to analyze this battle from the perspective of character, to put it simply, first answer "Why did Tywin win in the end, and what role did his character play in it?" "Robb, Stannis, Renly, Baron Why did they lose in the end, and what role did their characters play in it?" These two questions.
The beginning of the war
At the start of the war, the Lannisters were the first to gain the upper hand: Ned was imprisoned and there was a lack of strong leaders in the North; the Riverlands were on the verge of collapse; the Baratheon brothers were not ready.
But the battle of the Whisperer's Forest turned the tide, with Robb defeating Jaime and taking him prisoner. Tywin values family continuation the most, and "You're all he's got father (season 4, episode 1)." Robb holds James, which means that even if he loses in the future, he will be able to mediate with Tywin. The chips will not be cut off to death. At the same time, he also merged the army of the river land, and the strength has increased.
At the same time, Renly Baratheon, supported by most of the lords of the Stormlands and House Tyrell, had an army of a hundred thousand, and marched toward King's Landing.
Stannis Baratheon is also king, second only to Greyjoy in the number of ships he has, and can directly threaten King's Landing along the coast.
Although Arryn Valley and Dorne did not participate in the war, the Arryn family and the Martell family both had a feud with the Lannister family. As long as the Lannisters lost the battlefield, they would immediately join. So Kevan said with emotion: "It's a catastrophe (It's a catastrophe, season 1, episode 10)."
So, how did Tywin manage to turn the corner from danger under such disadvantages?
The turning point of the war
Fighting, to put it simply, is nothing more than strengthening oneself and weakening the opponent.
Renly was assassinated by the shadow because of the screenwriter's helplessness. Renly does have a certain charisma, so although he is not the eldest son, all the Lords of the Stormlands are willing to join him. But Renly was frivolous and had no real skills. On the occasion of the war, a martial arts conference was also held for entertainment, just like Song Yi before the battle of Julu and Liu Bang before the battle of Pengcheng. But he has a strong army after all, "In a real war, the side with the greater number wins nine times out of ten, "In a real war, the side with the greater number wins nine times out of ten, Season 2, Episode 2)" , Once he defeats Stannis and flanks with Robb, Tywin has no chance of winning. But if this is the case, the plot will have no ups and downs, and it will not look good. Therefore, his death was "inevitable". But starting from reality, there is no way to kill him, so he has to resort to magic. Therefore, he was assassinated by the shadow because of the screenwriter's helplessness.
And his death became a turning point in the war, which directly led to two major consequences: First, the Tyrell family was divided. 2. Stannis's strength has been enhanced. The situation changed from a super (Lannister) to a super (Renly), a strong (Robb), a weak (Stannis) to a super (Lannister) to two strong (Robb, Stein) Nice), and the two powerhouses are still not cooperating with each other, and the pressure on Lannister has plummeted.
Next, let's see how Stannis plays.
3. The decision point of the war
Stannis has a huge flaw in character. He is only suitable for being a general who leads troops on the front line, not a commander who strategizes.
First of all, as others have commented, he has no leadership affinity, and the soldiers don't give him heartfelt attachments. After Caitlin met Renly, the two walked around the camp, everyone bowed to Renly, and Renly responded with a smile and a caring conversation with one of them (Season 2, Episode 3). Robb is pretty much the same as him (Season 2, Episode 6). But Stannis was the exact opposite. After Renly died, he and Davos walked through the camp, everyone bowed to him, and Stannis turned a blind eye and went directly into the tent (Season 2, Episode 5). It's just a detail, but it's important. If the grassroots soldiers do not personally attach themselves to the leaders, when engaging in a battle, they often have reservations out of consideration for their lives. Therefore, Wu Qi and Xiang Yu personally sucked the gangrene for the soldiers. If one person is like this, then the law will be enforced. If a battalion is like this, then a military law will rule it out. Therefore, responding to the soldier's bow may seem trivial, but in fact it is very important to the establishment of his own leadership image, not to mention that Stannis himself has had a crisis of trust among his subordinates because of the red robe girl, "Some people believe that you obey her words. (Some believe she whispers orders in your ear and you obey, Season 2, Episode 5)."
Second, Stannis is too self-willed to accept others. Davos asked him to work with Renly and Robb, but he flatly refused, saying, "They will bend the knee or I will destroy them if they don't surrender." In the small place of Dragonstone Island, Stannis is far weaker than other forces in terms of military, financial and material resources, but he is so arrogant, which makes him always lack a clear understanding and judgment of himself and the situation.
At the same time, he is too cold and withdrawn, and does not know how to communicate. Tyrion knows how to give big speeches when he leads the army out of the city, but before the battle of Blackwater, Stannis said something: "Come with me and take this city (Come with me and take this city, season 2) Episode 9)." He went to the Iron Vault to borrow money, and as soon as they refused, he got up and left, even if that was his only hope. Including later, he persuaded Jon to join his army. Once Jon refused, he didn't say much and gave up immediately. Perhaps it was also because he knew his own flaws that he credited Davos, who could complement him, "I didn't name you Hand for your expertise in military matter, I hired you as Prime Minister, not because of your military ability. Season 5, Episode 9)." Plus, his trust in Davos is largely tied to the line: "We were forgotten (Season 2, Episode 8)." They They are all unwilling beings rejected by the mainstream circle, and the same fate makes their connection closer.
It was these character flaws that made him make two consecutive mistakes in the Battle of Heishuihe:
First, because of his stubbornness, he was unable, or rather disdain, to form an alliance with Robb. After gaining the strength of Stormland, he was strong enough to win King's Landing, but he only needed to beware of Tywin's return. Therefore, as long as he is allied with Robb, whether it is a feint or a real attack, as long as the soldiers point to Casterly Rock, they can contain Tywin's forces. If Tywin does not return to defense, he will take King's Landing and command the world. If Tywin returns to defense, Robb will have a chance to capture Casterly Rock, which is a major event. But he was stubborn and gave up this "two-way strategy", which led to a fiasco.
Second, because he is cold and withdrawn, and does not know how to communicate, he always sees only the red-robed woman and Davos, and rarely sees other staff or lords. Then, after the red-robed woman was reprimanded, he could almost only appoint Davos as the commander-in-chief of the army. But at the time of the appointment, Davos said: "My time on the sea was spent evading ships, not attacking them (Season 2, Episode 5)." Let one It was reckless for someone with no naval experience to lead this crucial battle, and it led them directly into a wildfire trap. If someone with experience leads the army, and sees the other party only having one boat, he will definitely be alert, and send someone to send a sentry first, so that the wildfire will not be a threat. And without the wildfire trap, Stannis's speed of breaking the city will speed up. Once the city is occupied, even if Tywin comes to help, it is difficult to say the outcome. Moreover, his preference for Davos also distracted other lords, "The other lords will't be happy (Season 2, Episode 5)", so that after a defeat, everyone rebelled He left, leaving him alone.
Stannis made a mistake in the overall situation, Davos lost in the frontline battlefield, the lord and soldiers were not close enough, coupled with Tyrion's military strategy, Tywin returned to help in time, Stannis was finally defeated on the Blackwater River, Thus laid the final conclusion of the War of the Five Kings.
The post-war period
After the Battle of the Blackwater, Tywin said, "The battle is over. We have won (Season 2, Episode 9)." This wasn't just the Battle of the Blackwater. , and the entire Battle of the Five Kings. At this point, Renly died, Stannis was defeated, and the Tyrells defected. Tywin perfectly strengthened himself and weakened his opponent. Now, the only real threat to him is Robb Stark.
And Robb is far inferior to Tywin. First of all, regardless of his big mistakes in the later period, even in the early stage when he looked like a good man, Robb was always being questioned because he was too young and lacked prestige. And this kind of doubt came not only from within the army, but also from the North, which is the rear. The old man who wanted someone to build the city wall can be regarded as the epitome of everyone in the North. Countless pairs of eyes stared at him, waiting for him to make mistakes. However, being young is not fatal. Kangxi captured Ao Bai at the age of sixteen, and he was truly pro-government and controlled the powerful ministers the same. The lack of prestige brings only a crisis. Although this kind of crisis is difficult to eradicate because of the instinctive hatred of the elite and the need for self-sublimation, it is Robb himself who turns this crisis into a danger.
First of all, Robb has too many women's kindness. Roose Bolton asked him to torture the captives and obtain information, but Robb refused. When Liu Shi really believed in Confucianism and wanted to rule the world with benevolence, righteousness and morality, Emperor Xuan of the Han said: "The one who disturbs my family is the crown prince!" "The sage's book is for people to read, and it is useless to do business. "Robb's wife's kindness undermined the good benefits brought by the victory, and made himself despised by his subordinates. They must have thought in their hearts: "You really are young people!" What's more, it also increased the burden on the army- - "Barely enough food to feed our own (Season 2, Episode 4)" - paved the way for the subsequent defeat.
And the biggest internal reason for his defeat is probably the words of Lord Karstark: "I think you lost this war the day you married her, the day you married her. Season 3, Episode 2)." This seems like an outrage, but it actually makes a lot of sense. First of all, the hostility of the Westeros to foreigners is extraordinary, just look at the Red Robe and Randyll Tully switching to Cersei. But more importantly, Robb's prestige is not enough, and his strategy and tactics are not very clever. "Women's kindness" is not only his weakness, but also his biggest advantage, and it can even be said to be his only advantage of convincing people. . The combination with Teresa directly marked him as not keeping his promises. The biggest advantage he originally relied on collapsed. Robb had nothing from now on, and his prestige in the army fell to the bottom. Lord Karstark said earlier, "He brought that foreign bitch with him (Season 2, Episode 7)." Not even Caitlyn could watch it (Season 3, Episode 7). 7 episodes), so much so that in season 6, he also called people to stab in the spine (season 6, episode 7). "The loss of Cao and Liu is known to the world. It is not as large as Cao Cao's troops, not as broad as Cao Cao, and not as capable of battle as Cao Cao, but there are those who can win with one, and they are loyal and trustworthy. When Kong Ming moved Liu Zhang, he had lost the hope of being a righteous man in the world. He started to rule the army and mobilize the brigade as a teacher of benevolence and righteousness. Appropriate also.
It was his character that caused him to lose three allies and two foreign enemies: his righteousness and integrity made him kill Lord Karstark, and his wife's kindness made him lose Rouse Bolton - He ignored my advice at every turn (Season 3, Episode 10) - his free marriage cost him Walder Frey. Difficulties at home and abroad, eventually led to the tragedy of the bloody wedding.
"I won every battle, but I'm losing this war (Season 3, Episode 6)", looking at Robb's life, it is truly embarrassing. The so-called tactics win, and strategy loses.
But Tywin was completely different. In the whole play, the only real politicians who can be called mature politicians are Tywin Lannister, Olenna Tyrell and Roose Bolton (Prince Martell has too few appearances and insufficient performance). Tywin has almost assembled all the opposites of the character flaws of everyone in front.
First of all, Tywin has the supreme prestige in the army, and he has absolutely no mercy for women, it goes without saying. Second, he is resourceful and decisive. At the meeting after the Battle of the Whispering Woods (Season 1, Episode 10) and the Harrenhal Conference (Season 2, Episode 8), he was able to make instant decisions and was right. Yuan Shao and Sun Quan would be ashamed when they saw him. More importantly, as the most powerful man in the Seven Kingdoms, he has no arrogance like Stannis, and he is not arrogant or discouraged, which allows him to always have a calm and accurate judgment on the situation. He was a little contemptuous of Robb at first, but honestly, who wouldn't? But after losing the battle, he can immediately change his attitude, "We are still underestimating the little boy of the Stark family, he has two hands in the war, and his subordinates also admire him (We've underestimated the Stark boy for too long. He has a good mind). for warfare, his men worship him, Season 2, Episode 5)." Cersei was nowhere near as far as she thought "Robb Stark is a child (Season 2, Episode 5)" 1 episode)."
But this is not the key, the real key is that he is well versed in the samadhi of the royal people - both favor and power, and rewards and punishments are clearly defined. The Lannister mantra "The Lannisters pay their debts" is actually a twisted reflection of this imperial policy. And the essence of giving both kindness and power is justice. "Only one sincere character can gather talents. Only one public character can call on the world." "Seven kingdoms united in fear of Tywin Lannister (Season 3, Episode 6)", shared by Tywin's "Mighty" people. And people often ignore his "en". After the Battle of Heishuihe, he actually paid the Gaoshan tribesmen as promised. The purpose of taking the mountain people as the vanguard is to reduce the losses of their own troops. Generally speaking, this kind of role is used and discarded, but Tywin paid him enough according to the contract and let him go. Of course, there is a reason behind this to harass Ai Lingu, but in essence, he still wants to show his integrity. As a result, Tywin has established an ideal image that is both admirable and awe-inspiring (only the most admirable and loving ideal image of Daenerys earlier).
But this imperial policy is not a secret. On the contrary, everyone knows it, but it is actually done very little. Tywin can implement it because he has nothing but Olenna and Roose Bolton. See the ruthless absolute rationality of interests. Bad choices are often made because emotion trumps reason. Joffrey beheading Ned, Robb marrying Teresa, Stannis appointing Davos to lead the army, etc. But Tywin is different. He does everything for profit. His dislike of Tyrion is obvious to all. But after Joffrey beheaded Ned, he sent him acting Prime Minister. At that time, Tyrion was very strange: "Why didn't you send uncle? Why me, not someone else (Why not my uncle? Why not anyone? Why me? Season 1, episode 10)?" Tywin said: "You are me Son (You are my son, Season 1, Episode 10)." Tyrion's sluggish look shows his deep expectations for Tywin, but he also says he doesn't really understand Tywin Internal reasons for this move. Why Tyrion and no one else? Because the person who goes to King's Landing is to suppress is Cersei. Although Cersei is "not as smart as you think you are (You are not as smart as you think you are, Season 3, Episode 4)", she is more than strong and ruthless. The identity of "Daughter of Tywin", and can not let go. There is only one person who can fight her to the end without any scruples, and that is Tyrion, not only because they are incompatible with each other, and no one looks down on the other, but also because Tyrion is "the son of Tywin", and they are on an equal footing. Leon won't feel inferior in front of her, and if it were someone else, it wouldn't work. So when Tywin answered "why", he said: "You are my son." It not only boosted Tyrion's heart, but also implicitly expressed this intention. In addition, in order to strengthen the family, he can also marry his former rival, the Tyril family; he can arrange a bloody wedding; he can betroth Sansa to Tyrion and Cersei to Loras; he can also let go Compromise with the Martell family in preparation for Daenerys' threat. Tywin is never influenced by his likes and dislikes, he only makes the right decision, Olenna commented "He understood that sometimes we must work with our rivals rather than destroy
With prestige and clear rewards and punishments, soldiers are always respectful; resourceful and decisive, not arrogant or discouraged, so they can always see the situation clearly; absolute rationality, regardless of feelings, so always only make the right decision. With such a combination of qualities, Tai Wen is really "a capable minister of governance and a traitor in troubled times". The ultimate winner of the Battle of the Five Kings, he deserves it.
And if the above-mentioned qualities can be maintained for a lifetime, it is indeed unmatched. But unfortunately, he is also a mortal body. "Righteousness is the beetle of business, benevolence is the leader of the army, and affection is the beetle of the heart." When Taiwen and other fallen people let emotion take precedence over reason, he could only follow in the footsteps of others. Throughout the battle, Tywin had one place where the rewards and punishments were unfair, and that was his treatment of Tyrion. After serving as prime minister, Tyrion pacified political chaos at home and defended against strong enemies outside. "I bled in the mud for our family, (season 3, episode 1)", after paying so much for the family, Tyrion naturally has a deeper sympathy for Tywin, who has affirmed himself and admitted that he is his son expectations. But the results are ruthless, and Tywin still believes in his heart that he is an "ill-made, spiteful little creature", and Tyrion can no longer deceive himself into realizing it. : No matter how talented I am, my father will not really regard me as a son. No matter what contribution I made, my father just used me as a tool. "I'm guilty of being a dwarf (Season 4, Episode 6)". Of course, there is also his mother's reason behind this, "You, who killed your mother to come into the world (season 3, season 1)". Tywin loves his wife deeply. A cold person actually cherishes warmth more than others, and his wife is his only warmth. The more Tywin loves his wife, the more he hates Tyrion who "taken away" his wife, so much so. Unable to maintain their absolute rationality and unfair reward and punishment, resulting in death.
In addition, although Tywin is powerful, "he kept his house in power through sheer will completely by his own will to keep his family strong (He kept his house in power through sheer will, episode 3 of season 5)." Zhuge Liang's one-brain politics is a very unhealthy political ecology . The vitality of a country and a regime comes from a steady stream of fresh blood, which needs to be cultivated with rich soil. Xishu enjoys the shortest state in the country, and the two Jin Dynasties are struggling to survive. Therefore, the once-prosperous Lannister family declined after Tywin's death, no longer before. As a result, Tywin's dream of a thousand generations is continued by his most hated Tyrion, and history(?) is really paradoxical.
V. Conclusion
And the war hit here, and there was a Balon Greyjoy. Then let's talk briefly about the Greyjoy family. The family language of each family is actually very interesting. "Winter is coming" shows that the Stark family has seen the endless power struggle, and the contradictions are square and square, so they warn future generations to always do well Prepare. "Fire and blood" shows that the Targaryen family understands the cruelty of power struggles. Either you die or I die. "We do not sow" is an intuitive reflection of the survival characteristics of the islanders of the Iron Islands. In a long-term war, unless there is a decisive gap between the two sides in terms of numbers and strength, strategy and tactics, money and food are the fundamental issues. The Qin State ruled the world, and the person to thank most was Shang Yang. In the Western Han Dynasty, Xiao He Gong was the highest. The Greyjoy family only plunders, does not produce, and does not colonize, so even if the soldiers are fierce, they will never be able to win. Baron rebelled twice, and can only say that his head is sick. Euron was much wiser and knew how to rely on the land powers that were rich and well-fed.
So far, the author has mainly analyzed the success or failure of the Battle of the Five Kings from the perspective of character. In hindsight, I have to say that they were indeed "spokes on the same wheel, up and down. They're all just spokes on a wheel. This one is on top, then that one is on top And on and on it spins, Season 5, Episode 8)." No one can "break the wheel (Season 5, Episode 8)." , Only Yang Shen's words are always correct: "The waters of the Yangtze River are rolling in the east, and the waves wash away the heroes. The success or failure turns empty. The green hills are still there, and the sunset is red several times."
It's a pity that there will be no "Game of Thrones" after 5 seasons. But think about it, who can put a perfect end to this "Game of Thrones"?
November 18, 2021
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