Brexit: Democracy or a guinea pig

Kolby 2022-03-23 09:03:08

The article was first published on the public account Ceguoguo .

Reminder: The full text is 2600 words, 11 pictures, and the reading time is 8 minutes.

Before the 17th century, people believed that swans were all white, and with the emergence of Australia's first black swan, people's perception collapsed.

The Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom was one of the most famous black swan events in politics in 2016. In the same year, there were two other events. One was that Trump, a lunatic, was successfully elected as the president of the United States, and the other was that the Italian referendum on constitutional amendments failed. (Black swan events in history include the 9/11 terrorist attack, the sinking of the Titanic, and possibly the outbreak of the new coronavirus in the future)

Two years after the referendum, the UK Electoral Commission claimed the referendum violated electoral law because they found the victory was the result of a single man behind the scenes. This man is Dominic Cummings.

This is a mysterious guy. It can only be found that he graduated from Oxford University. After graduation, he drove an airline with only one plane, and then returned to the UK to participate in politics. He has no party or affiliation. He has helped or organized many leaders to participate During the campaign, he also wrote a 240-page paper on how to transform Britain into an elite society. Some people commented that he was "either crazy, bad, or genius, maybe a combination of the three." Visible. Naturally anti-bone, by no means an ordinary person. It's just that his ambitions are not fulfilled, and his ideas are often ignored or even betrayed by leaders. He is arrogant and can't stand the incompetence and idiots of the people around him, and vows never to touch politics again. For the first two years of Brexit, he had been quitting his job at home, reading or meditating every day.

Until one day someone came to him to preside over the overall situation of Brexit, and gave a reason that Cummings could not refuse: everyone will listen to you, and this is an unprecedented opportunity to make a comeback.

This pulse is too accurate. People have to do something in life.

So what does Cummings add to the drama? He is not greedy for money (the board of directors in the movie gave him a lot of money to let him quit, but he has no interest), he does not care about power (retires immediately after the success of Brexit), the only thing he wants is to defend himself Suppressed by those in power, exert their own ambitions, and let those in power who used to be high above see who is right. As for whether he really believes that Brexit is good for the UK, I don’t think so, it’s more for personal reasons. Irrational desires, fighting against those in power, and being smarter than anyone else. "Battle of the Unreasonable" begins well, " Everyone knows who wins now ." This is blatant bragging.

All things are made by people.

Let's see how he does it with "Unreasonable War": The goal is clear - to increase the number of votes that support Brexit by one. One-third of the people are now staunch Remainers, one-third are staunch Brexiters, and one-third are skeptics who have no idea why they want to leave or stay, If he directs that third to Brexit, then he wins.

In the movie, Cummings can always hear noises, the noise gets louder the farther away from the political center, what are these noises? I think it is the people's dissatisfaction, complaints, anger towards the current government, rustling, the more remote and poor places the more opinions on the government, they have no job, no pension, they suspect and complain about disappointment, but there is nothing they can do. Policies don't take them into account at all, let alone people come to their door to get their advice on the government, they never vote even if the polling place is nearby, it makes no difference to them who the next prime minister is, Brexit or not. Remaining in Europe is too far away for them, far less important than what they can eat tomorrow.

Cummings is keenly aware of the existence of these people. For a long time, people's small pressures have been accumulating, about medical care, employment, pensions... Of course, the root of all this is planted by the current government. 20 years ago, maybe in an earlier time, a little bit of infiltration... They are like oil fields buried deep in the ground, so many resources are slowly accumulating in the long river of time, moaning and weeping , as long as one day, find that location and drill a well, the pressure will burst out all at once, all released.

Cummings drilled that well, and he came up with a slogan— Take back Control , which was really a genius idea. Taking control back is too inflammatory, I have the final say in my country, but what he wants to convey is far beyond the boundaries of whether to leave the EU or not, it is a grand emotion, and it is not only to control It is our country, and the life that has been taken away from us by others. Think about the 1992 U.S. election. Clinton's slogan was "It's The Economy, Stupid!" He also talks about the economy and knows the pain points of the common people. Clinton also asked a seemingly simple question in his speech: " If you let the Republican Party work for another 4 years, will your life be better or worse ?" The 1992 election changed all political movements, and the American people have since Begin to see Clinton "from a comparative perspective" rather than "with a demanding eye." The question is not whether he is perfect, but whether he is a better candidate than Bush. In the same way, Cummings has to do the same, he wants to guide people is "Would your life be better if you didn't leave the EU?", when a system fails again, all we do is restart. (Just change the Prime Minister), and get the same results, why not reset it? Make even a little change. As the woman in the movie said: I have nothing to lose, and it might be better if I changed it, because it couldn't get any worse, and now is the perfect time.

In addition to getting those people who did not vote against the government, Cummings also used modern technology - big data to accurately canvass votes. He chose a team called Intelligent Aggregation, which uses sophisticated algorithms to micro-attack the targets of political campaigns, and is advanced enough to send different advertisements according to different targets. For example: if you like tea, you will receive to the EU to attack tea ads,

Ads for kettles:

If you're concerned about immigration, you'll get ads advertised that you'll be out of a job in large numbers of Turkish migrants coming into the UK.

And so on... According to statistics, Cummings sent a total of 1 billion customized ads through smart aggregation before the referendum. What you don’t know is that the purpose of smart aggregation joining this big drama is just to collect enough test data. Whether or not to leave the EU is just an experiment in their eyes, and the British people have become a group of guinea pigs. (Intelligent Aggregation also participated in the Trump election, I guess they asked if Hillary Clinton would be better off?) Indeed, the game of politics has changed, and politicians can even be directed without coming forward Pushing provocative ads can win elections, and for ordinary people, it's multiple choice questions on a whim.

Through a series of operations by Cummings, the United Kingdom left the European Union. But then what? Cummings has gone into hiding. Has he promised before the referendum that "the UK will give the EU £350 million a week, which will be used to improve the national health care and social security if it leaves the EU"? Migrants from Turkey didn't fail to enter the UK, but did those who didn't have jobs actually find work?

Britain is the originator of the representative system, and the essence of the representative system is that the people elect social leaders to lead the country on their behalf. When the country is at a crossroads, people expect politicians to stand up and shoulder the mission. Isn't it funny that the problem of future and destiny is handed over to the people...

" There are no people, I only see one person after another. " Yuan Shikai's lines, and now thinking about this sentence, have another layer of experience. Easter egg at the end of the article: The soundtrack of "Unreasonable War" is Beethoven's Ninth Symphony. You can get a lossless version of the music by replying to " Bei Jiu" in the public account. Previous Articles: Brexit (1): Prime Minister Accidentally Played Off Zhang Ailing : A Talented Woman Suddenly Married Gu Cheng -Between Poetry and Cruelty Xiang Yu : Overlords Never Become Emperors Hongmen Banquet : A wine game between five sensible people and one confused person. For more articles, please follow the official account of Cui Guoguo .

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Extended Reading

Brexit quotes

  • Dominic Cummings: Let me tell you who we're up against. Who are setting themselves up over the river to destroy us.

    [scene cuts to Vote Remain offices as he continues]

    Dominic Cummings: Lucy Thomas, ex-producer of BBC's Newsnight program, so she'll know how to handle the press. Director of the campaign, Will Straw, son of Jack. Failed his MP race in 2015, typical establishment thinker: "If it didn't work the first time, try it again". You got Ryan Coetzee, director of strategy, he's Nick Clegg's former special advisor.

    Nigel Farage: Labour and Lib-Dem hate each other post-coalition. That won't work!

    Dominic Cummings: Oh, yeah, no, it's a proper left and center-left love-in. You've got the Greens and the Welsh, but none as interesting as these. The one true enemy they both share...

    Matthew Elliott: Tories.

    Dominic Cummings: The Number Ten machine, headed up by, trumpets please

    [blows raspberry]

    Dominic Cummings: Craig Oliver!

    Nigel Farage: Cameron's communication director.

    Dominic Cummings: A position held as we know by a long succession of bastards - Campbell, Coulsen. This one's more out of the limelight, ostensibly in control and composed. He's furiously loyal to his boss and I can tell you that we, uh, well we have a little history.

    [cut back to Vote Remain offices]

    Craig Oliver: Dominic Cummings is basically mental. We had to all but ban him from Number Ten. He's desperate to be seen as this visionary architect of a new world order, but actually, he's just an egotist with a wrecking ball. It does however mean that he's, well, he's unpredictable.

    [cut back to Vote Leave offices]

    Dominic Cummings: I know how to beat Oliver. Conventional wisdom is a disease that the British are peculiarly susceptible to, and he certainly hasn't been inoculated.

  • Dominic Cummings: [scene cuts between the two offices of Vote Leave and Vote Remain as they write out strategy] We also know that the other side are gonna run a campaign the way that campaigns have been run for pretty much the last 70 years. They're gonna fight from the center, and they're gonna make it about jobs and the economy.

    Andrew Cooper: We focus on the economy and jobs. The message: leaving risks both.

    Craig Oliver: Clinton '92. Best campaign ever. "It's the economy, stupid".

    Andrew Cooper: You define your opponent as the riskier option, and though the change candidate might initially poll well, come election day the nerves kick in. Voters revert back to center. Law of political science - if the status quo are ahead before the campaign begins, which we are, they always win on the day. So...

    Douglas Carswell: So, what's our answer?

    Dominic Cummings: Tzu's "The Art of War". If we fight them on home terrain, they will win. So what we need to do is lead them to the ninth battlefield. The deadly ground where no one expects to find themselves. Outcome? *They* perish.

    Victoria Woodcock: Which means?

    Dominic Cummings: You reverse the proposition. We make *them* the risky option. To stay is to risk losing more of the things we cherish - we're asking voters not to reject the status quo, but to return to it, to independence. How much does it cost us each week to be members of the EU?

    Daniel Hannan: In the region of...

    Dominic Cummings: What's our researcher's name?

    Matthew Elliott: Richard.

    Dominic Cummings: Ricardo, will you get me all the figures up for how much it costs to be members of the EU for a week? Largest one wins.

    Matthew Elliott: Make sure it's verifiable!