Unreasonable War

Dominic Cummings: [scene cuts between the two offices of Vote Leave and Vote Remain as they write out strategy] We also know that the other side are gonna run a campaign the way that campaigns have been run for pretty much the last 70 years. They're gonna fight from the center, and they're gonna make it about jobs and the economy.

Andrew Cooper: We focus on the economy and jobs. The message: leaving risks both.

Craig Oliver: Clinton '92. Best campaign ever. "It's the economy, stupid".

Andrew Cooper: You define your opponent as the riskier option, and though the change candidate might initially poll well, come election day the nerves kick in. Voters revert back to center. Law of political science - if the status quo are ahead before the campaign begins, which we are, they always win on the day. So...

Douglas Carswell: So, what's our answer?

Dominic Cummings: Tzu's "The Art of War". If we fight them on home terrain, they will win. So what we need to do is lead them to the ninth battlefield. The deadly ground where no one expects to find themselves. Outcome? *They* perish.

Victoria Woodcock: Which means?

Dominic Cummings: You reverse the proposition. We make *them* the risky option. To stay is to risk losing more of the things we cherish - we're asking voters not to reject the status quo, but to return to it, to independence. How much does it cost us each week to be members of the EU?

Daniel Hannan: In the region of...

Dominic Cummings: What's our researcher's name?

Matthew Elliott: Richard.

Dominic Cummings: Ricardo, will you get me all the figures up for how much it costs to be members of the EU for a week? Largest one wins.

Matthew Elliott: Make sure it's verifiable!

Dominic Cummings: It's not rocket science, it's simple. There are three types of voter. Those certain to vote to exit, that's one third. Well, they're in the bag, so ignore them. Those certain to vote to stay, that's another third, and we can't touch them so fuck 'em. The last third: "I would like to leave, but I'm worried about what the effect will be to jobs and living standards". *These* are the only people that we need to care about. And trust me, the others will be after exactly the same bunch.

[cut to Vote Remain offices]

Craig Oliver: Now, these are who will decide the result. The "Hearts versus Heads" and the "Disengaged Middle". 34% of the electorate.