I only got a general understanding of the main line of American politics after reading the history of the Federal Reserve, which is a master of the unbreakable. The article is a bit long, and it has been authorized to reprint. I suggest you pay attention to the original version.
Start:
In January 1989, a Boeing 747 landed at the Saudi capital Riyadh National Airport. King Fahd of Saudi Arabia greeted him early. The plane stopped, and two people, one fat and one thin, came down from the bridge. The fat man is in front, rubbing his feet, wearing fat trousers. When I got closer, I saw the thin man, wearing a pair of old shiny glasses, thick eyebrows, hands hanging down to knees.
The fat man is US Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney. After shaking hands, he solemnly introduced Fahd to the thin man behind him.
"Dear King, this is Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan."
Few Jews, with the exception of Greenspan, could receive high ceremonies in Arab countries. Fahd's compliment was subtle, but deeply rooted. He can very accurately mention the emergency executive meeting of the Federal Reserve chaired by Greenspan a year ago during the stock market crisis known as "Black Monday", and how long it took to make the final decision.
"I let our financial system learn your management methods." As the king of the 2.25 million square kilometers of the Middle East, Fahd is astonishingly modest.
The fully-armed King's convoy wound for almost a kilometer, and the convoy security was equipped with advanced weapons. Greenspan could see that these were the latest American products.
After the motorcade entered the palace, it continued to drive for nearly half an hour before reaching the Saudi state banquet hall. There is no standard diplomatic etiquette, so the state banquet hall returns to its original appearance: splendid and finely embroidered. The waiter handled the details of each guest gracefully, and specially replaced Greenspan with a European-style rattan chair, which relieved Greenspan's back pain a lot.
The banquet was very lively. The king introduced many high-ranking Saudi officials to Greenspan. The high-ranking officials praised Greenspan beyond race. Occasionally, Greenspan also told a few jokes that did not match his heavy appearance, which made everyone laugh. laughing out loud. Greenspan at dinner was like a superstar, not a Jew.
After the dinner, Cheney and Greenspan followed Fahd to a study. California single-bud whiskey and Cuban cigars are already ready, and the waiter is long gone.
Cheney took a sip of strong whiskey, sipped, turned around and took out a stack of photos from his briefcase, explaining to Fahd that it was a recent FIA photo: Saddam's troops in Iraq did indeed take out from Iran has withdrawn its entire force, but troops continue to build up in the south, near the borders of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
Fahd had actually obtained similar photos from Saudi Arabia's own intelligence agencies, but at this time, in order to give the US Secretary of Defense face, he still pretended to be surprised.
Cheney changed the conversation at this time, bragging about Iraq's military equipment, and used the words "frightening", "military power second only to China", and "the fourth largest military power in the world".
The reason why Fahd has been paying attention to the movements of the Iraqi army for a long time is that most of Aramco's oil production bases are very close to the Iraqi border. With just one artillery shell, the Saudi Arabian oil industry may be wiped out.
After a warm-up, Cheney turned to emphasizing reassuring Saudi Arabia that Saudi Arabia is a good friend of the United States.
Greenspan watched all this calmly. Normally, this is not a meeting where the Fed chairman should be present. Cheney crossed the line. But who called him Dick Cheney, Greenspan thought. Greenspan could sense something very much the same in Cheney.
In the middle of the night, the three of them got drunk and went back to their rooms to rest. The next day, Cheney woke up with a Saudi arms purchase order on the table.
After the goal was achieved, Cheney and Greenspan set off for Israel. He wanted to "accidentally" leak the news of Saudi Arabia's increase in arms to Israeli Prime Minister Shamir.
Watching the backs of Cheney and Greenspan's motorcade turn into a small dot in the desert, Fahd couldn't help but sigh: With these two people in the United States, the world will surely change.
①
The rise of the shadow president
"Go ahead, take this Fed chairman and see how the real world works," Bush Sr. told Cheney before Cheney's trip to the Middle East.
Bush Sr. and Cheney were tacit partners. They almost arranged all the affairs of President Reagan in the Middle East and the Americas in the 1980s. The military oil, the cornerstone of conservativeism, made a lot of money. And Reagan just had to deal with the Soviet Union easily.
Greenspan and Cheney's friendship dates back to the 1970s, when both of them were frustrated at the same time, and they both worked as staffers in the Ford government. Since then, Cheney has entered the moderate conservative camp under the leadership of Bush Sr., and Greenspan's advocacy of free marketism has allowed him to sit on the position of chairman of the Federal Reserve.
They, as ambitious, believe that America is in their hands. A strife has begun since Bush's election.
(1) 1988: Bush Sr’s unexpected appointment
In 1988, Bush's running opponent was Michael Dukasky. When Bush Sr. touts a return to the Middle East with the military and oil majors. In the New England region behind Michael Dukaski (Massachusetts, Maine and other 6 most innovative states in the United States), a wealthy class representing the new economy (non-industry, real estate, services, technology, etc.) has risen.
During the election campaign, Dukasky made a campaign promise to vigorously support the real estate industry, so that the wealthy class of the new economy gave Dukasky ammunition. House prices are rising day by day, and Dukasky once was 10 points ahead of Bush Sr. in approval ratings. This surprised the conservatives headed by Bush Sr. that the wealthy class of the new economy had so much energy.
Bush Sr did not expect that another opponent in his path to the White House would be Greenspan. At this time, Greenspan was in the limelight.
Last year's "Black Monday" in the stock market occurred at the end of Reagan's tenure, with the Dow tumbling 7% in one day. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was still fumbling for the limits of the dollar's power. He was about to board a flight to speak in Dallas when the crisis hit.
When the Chicago Board of Trade and investment banks were all staring at what signal the Fed chairman would release to stabilize the market, Greenspan appeared slowly at the Dallas airport. "The Fed chair probably doesn't see this as a crisis" was on the TV. Sure enough, the stock market's decline stopped.
After the shrewd Greenspan released his confident gesture, he took a military plane and returned to the Federal Reserve lobby that night. It only took one hour to persuade 6 committee members to make a final decision.
Early the next morning, TV and newspapers were broadcasting that the Federal Reserve would guarantee an unlimited supply of money between banks. The stock market turned red immediately, and in the next few weeks, pulled back to the position before the decline, while the markets in Australia, London, Hong Kong and other markets were hit hard during the same period, falling more than 30% in a few days.
Saving a crisis quickly and ruthlessly is no different from winning a war, and Greenspan is in the limelight. Traders on the rooftops of Wall Street were moved to tears. In the US financial circle, there is a selection of the support of the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and Greenspan has won as high as 90% of the support rate.
The assertive Greenspan felt he could move toward greater power, this time by taming a government under the power of the money supply.
Greenspan frequently appeared in public speeches, constantly conveying the message that he believed that the source of the stock market crisis was the turmoil caused by the excessive deficit of the Reagan administration, which was a cocoon of complete supply economics. The spear is directed at conservatives who believe in Keynesian economics.
Immediately after the tightening of the monetary policy, 50 basis points, 75 basis points... Frequent and violent interest rate increases, no matter who the next government is, there is almost no room for expanding the deficit.
Bush's supporters have looked at the poor economic data and criticized: "After the crisis, the economy began to decline, why not lower interest rates, but increase interest rates, shouldn't it be more accommodative?"
In the face of Bush's accusations, Greenspan's response was to ask thousands of economists and mathematicians under him to count the productivity of various industries in the United States, and forcibly associate interest rate hikes with productivity promotion: when We issue enough money, but the machines in our businesses are no longer producing, the devil of inflation is coming, and the misery of the 1970s will continue.
Bush's accusation was like a mud ox into the sea, which was resolved by Greenspan.
The 65-year-old Bush Sr., who was still vice president in the Reagan administration, had to deal with New England's newly wealthy class while dealing with Greenspan's austerity. The only strategist around him that he can rely on is Dick Cheney. But Cheney spends most of his time busy with Middle East affairs, with flawless domestic attention.
Just when everyone thinks that Bush Sr. is invincible with three punches and four, and it is impossible for him to enter the White House. An economic proposition no one could have predicted saved Bush Sr.
In Greenspan's process of raising interest rates, the rising cost of credit has destroyed overheated home prices in New England. The truth was soon revealed. It turned out that the real money of the rich came from bank loans, and the increase in loan interest rates completely poured cold water on the real estate transaction market, and housing prices began to collapse, which in turn led to bad debts of real estate companies in banks.
The fortunes of Michael Dukowski's emerging plutocrat collapsed in an instant. The purse-strapped New England electorate immediately turned against Michael Dukasky and threw himself into the arms of Bush Sr.
Greenspan, who believed in liberalism, unintentionally killed Bush's opponent and pushed the conservative Bush, who he didn't like, to the presidency. This was far beyond Greenspan's expectations.
On January 20, 1989, Bush Sr. was sworn in as the 41st President of the United States.
(2) 1990: The fight between the White House and the Fed
Dukasky's collapse is like a mystery.
At that time, few people linked housing prices and interest rates, and Greenspan's knowledge structure about economics just didn't have the real estate industry. Looking back now, it can indeed be regarded as the first bubble caused by easing since the beginning of the dollar era in 1971, and the banks in New England also experienced the first large-scale bankruptcy due to the burst of the bubble. But simply the banks at that time were not mixed.
Greenspan, who is responsible for financial supervision, chose to ignore the predicament of banks. He believes in market liberalism that banks have the ability to heal themselves. Perhaps it is this attitude that will allow him to personally open the era of banking giants 8 years later, and 17 years later, to hit the American economy hard.
But in 1990, the loose toxicity was not yet in his bones, and he put all his energy into a tough fight with Bush Sr. Greenspan believed that he was the "king" of the world. He needs to run the President of the United States, and then run the world. Whoever owns the dollar supply has power.
In the world of Bush Sr. and Cheney, whoever owns the military industry and oil has power.
An anxious Greenspan made his move.
He began to use his professional advantage to create a prisoner's dilemma for Bush who betrayed the American people. The fox-like Jewish old man did not lower interest rates, but continued to increase them. Then, using various economic terms such as inflation rate, productivity, and the independence of the Federal Reserve, but cannot be accurately measured immediately, to guide the American people to understand the current "unwarranted" predicament.
Easing-induced high inflation will destroy the U.S. economy, Greenspan said deliberately in a public speech.
Bush Sr. was by the television when Greenspan spoke. Bush's Treasury Secretary Brady was on the sidelines reporting on deficit reduction programs. The current deficit is terrifying: Reagan left a $220 billion hole for the Bush administration.
Dick Cheney, who was in the Middle East, left the American base, and the only thing behind him was Greenspan. Greenspan's speech was reprinted every few minutes by his secretary and placed on Cheney's desk in the hotel. At the same time, the fax machine transmitted the contents of the White House budget meeting. The more Cheney looked, the worse he felt. It suddenly became clear that Greenspan should have anticipated the current financial situation before deliberately raising interest rates.
Bush, who was far away in the White House, faced a deficit of $220 billion and had only three options to keep the federal government running:
Continue to widen the deficit, which requires the support of easy financial conditions, which is almost impossible to support by the federal funds rate of 9%;
Tighten government spending. At this time, Congress is controlled by the Democratic Party. Congress will not pass it. Should the government be shut down? ;
Raising taxes. According to the Ministry of Finance, raising the income tax rate from 28% to 31% is feasible, but it violates a campaign promise and is tantamount to political suicide.
Greenspan's speech continued, with words such as "we need to tighten further" and "we need to see a future recession in the US economy" coming out of the TV.
"What the hell is Greenspan doing?" Bush Sr. was furious and turned to Brady. At this point the secretary informed Cheney that the call came in.
"Greenspan has turned his back on the White House, and we currently have no means to stop him from doing so. If we really have no other choice, then admit it and announce a tax increase as soon as possible," Cheney suggested.
Bush Sr also discovered that he could not attack Greenspan in public. The American people remember the miserable days of high inflation in the 1970s. And Greenspan's reason is always that inflation data is not reasonable. Bush rashly attacked Greenspan through public opinion, which would show that he did not care about the wallets of the American people, but only about the votes in their hands.
"Greenspan completely ignored the American people. He fooled the people." In the Oval Office, Bush Sr. roared, Cheney listened quietly. Bush finished venting, looked out the window, and nodded lonely: "If there is no way, then you can do it. No matter what, I will take it."
"Understood," Cheney answered succinctly. Cheney, who hung up the phone, knew in his heart that Greenspan took the lead in manipulating the American people. He stood on a high ground that Bush Sr. could not attack, and the attack on Bush Sr. was not a good sign.
He thought of Bush's promise to voters: "Look at my lips and never raise taxes."
And within three weeks of Greenspan's speech, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by another 75 basis points.
Cheney hurried back to Washington, and in the Oval Office, Cheney offered Bush a plan: "It's better to do the math and announce the tax hike tomorrow, but let Greenspan sit behind you and appear on television across the nation. In the plane, let them all know that he is betting on you to increase the tax."
Cheney's trick slightly eased Bush's annoyed mood. This is at least a lot better than taking the blame from the people alone.
Killing one thousand enemies and self-destructing three hundred, Greenspan, who received the executive order, had to accept this request.
Sure enough, Cheney's tactics dragged the Fed into the water. Although Bush Sr. was accused of being a president who reneged on his promises, approval ratings fell below 40 percent. But Greenspan's reputation has also begun to come under some attack, and the financial circle's support for the Fed chairman has fallen.
(3) 1992: Bush Sr. carelessly loses the White House
In August 1990, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait broke out. The price of U.S. crude oil imports from the Middle East surged 30 percent in two days. Inflation hit 6% in September. While the federal funds rate is still at a high of 8.9%, there is great pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates amid rising oil price-led inflation.
The uncompromising Greenspan considered that if interest rates were cut early in the war as the Bush administration wanted, the Fed would lose its independence of power. That is, the Fed will officially enter a situation where he can only do whatever the Bush administration asks him to do.
If the Fed compromises on one thing, he has to compromise on everything. Greenspan is very aware of the Fed's power weaknesses, good things stand out from the crowd, and bad things can be deceiving. At this time, Cheney did not understand, but he would study the working mechanism of the Federal Reserve in the following years away from politics, and when he returned to the White House, he would deal a heavy blow to Greenspan.
After Greenspan took out the productivity trick for two more months and showed the attitude of the Fed's independence, it was finally difficult to defeat Bush's presidential power. At the end of November 1990, one month before Iraq's "Desert Operation", Bush Sr. ushered in the desired rate cut.
After Bush took care of Iraq with ease, the prestige of victory made the White House's approval rate jump to 90%, and the American people gradually forgot about the president who reneged on his promises. The current president is a president who has led the American people to victory. This war is far bigger, more just, and more heartening than Greenspan's "Black Monday."
The strong president left the chairman with no room, and Greenspan had to change his previous obsession with productivity, and continued to tentatively lower interest rates several times to charm the White House.
The old Bush, who was victorious, was full of confidence, and he did not take advantage of the victory to pursue Greenspan's victory. Bush's aristocratic upbringing let him make a fatal mistake and let his guard down.
At the end of 1991, the candidates to succeed the Fed chairman had been screened for several months, but it was indeed difficult to find suitable personnel. The delay in making the decision caused dissatisfaction in the US Congress (the Fed chairman was appointed by the president and approved by Congress). Greenspan frequently appeared in public to give speeches, and I heard that he had some congressmen for morning tea in the morning. He hoped to win the favor of more American people.
Bush Sr. seems to have no other way. Out of his confidence in the re-election of the president, he waved his sleeves and let Greenspan continue to be re-elected as chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Defense Secretary Cheney, who was busy with the issue of the Saudi garrison, was shocked when he heard that Greenspan was about to be re-elected as the chairman of the Federal Reserve. He vaguely felt that Bush Sr. was over.
"I'll keep the currency loose," Greenspan promised as he thanked Bush.
But after two consecutive defeats, Greenspan was unwilling to give in easily. He has quietly formulated a plan to fight back against the White House. This plan can not only sting the White House, but also allow him to retreat: The Fed has been suppressing the Bush administration for the first three years, and has accumulated enough room to relax, Greens said. Pan deliberately controlled the rate of decline in interest rates to slow down the economic recovery under the Bush administration. As long as good economic data did not occur during Bush's election cycle, it would be a fatal blow to the White House.
Greenspan checks economic data a month after he cuts rates by 25 basis points. At this time, the problems of the banking system caused by housing prices in the New England area are still spreading, the speed of the economic recession is continuing to accelerate, and the unemployment rate data will inevitably rise. Every time he got the rising unemployment data, Greenspan would spend another month organizing a huge economics team, together with the US Treasury Department, to debate why the unemployment rate would rise.
In this way, time slowly entered 1992.
During the campaign period, Bush faced an embarrassing situation: the GDP growth rate of the domestic economy was hovering around 1.2%. After deducting the inflation rate, the economic growth was in a negative range, and the unemployment rate was the highest in the past ten years. Above 6%.
Clinton's campaign seized on Bush Sr.'s poor governance of the recession and attacked it desperately.
In September 1992, the dust settled, Clinton was destined to be the next president of the United States, and became a historical example of winning the White House by defeating the weak. And all this thanks to the dark Chencang of the Federal Reserve.
"If the Fed can lower interest rates sooner, I'm sure I'll be re-elected," Bush Sr. said.
In the fourth quarter of 1992, the last quarter of Bush's tenure, the US GDP growth rate soared to 4.3%. Delayed prosperity cannot save the established fact. Bush Sr. carelessly lost the White House and lost Washington.
"Shadow President" Greenspan officially ascended the throne.
②
1992-2000: Conservatives keep a low profile
With the advantage of the victory in the first Iraq War, there is little suspense that Bush Sr will become the next president. Important figures in the Democratic Party are afraid and unwilling to compete with Bush Sr. The decision of the party to rush out the young Clinton to participate in the election is equivalent to announcing that the Democratic Party has given up the race for the presidency. Neocons are betting heavily on Bush Sr., even popping champagne to celebrate. But the unexpected defeat of Bush Sr. wiped out the neoconservatism (moderate conservatism), and the cornerstone industry began to lose its voice in American politics.
Dick Cheney moved to Texas to become CEO of Harrington's. For Dick Cheney, who has a strong desire for power, being the CEO of an oil company is no different from trying hard. This is a man destined to return to the Washington stage.
While Bush traveled the world with his wife, the politically frustrated Bush did not give up entirely. He bet all his family's political resources on his alcoholic son, Bush Jr. Under the remote control of Bush Sr., Bush Jr. won the governor of Texas in 1994, and gradually has the strength to re-enter the White House.
Conservatives have been battered, far from temples, but are constantly gathering strength.
And "shadow president" Greenspan became even more powerful after forcing Bush Sr. Clinton, who was shouting for reform, was extremely afraid. The smart Clinton knew that if he wanted to make achievements, Greenspan was the one person he could never touch.
Greenspan also appreciates Clinton's surrender attitude. After the White House stopped interfering in the Fed's decision-making, Greenspan became more reckless. Interest rates fell all the way after Bush moved out of the White House and remained at around 3% for two years.
The mutual appreciation is most directly reflected in the economic data. During Clinton's tenure, the average annual GDP growth rate was 4%, the inflation rate was 2.5%, and the average federal funds rate was 4%. Since then, Amazon and Microsoft have completed the first wave of the most primitive accumulation. Silicon Valley has become a mecca of technology and a vortex of the dollar. The wealth effect has led most people astray.
Greenspan suddenly noticed that a pair of eyes called "Market" had been staring at him. The market is studying his movements all the time, guessing when he is happy, when he is angry, when he is angry, and when he is quiet.
The purpose of the market is to hope to obtain lower-cost dollars at the right time and obtain more wealth.
Under low borrowing rates, all financial asset yields are narrowed, and hedge funds can only push dollars to invest overseas to obtain greater profits, which means higher risks. Hedge fund managers need to calculate the cost of funds and market trends at all times to ensure investment returns after making overseas investments. Robertson's Tiger Fund and Soros' Quantum Fund are among the best.
Greenspan holds the lifeblood of the market. Greenspan can even use the weapon of raising interest rates to bankrupt weak countries thousands of kilometers away.
If there was one thing Greenspan learned during the Clinton presidency, it was this: Never say anything with 100% certainty. Just like when Empress Dowager Cixi was eating, all the dishes would be covered with rain and dew. If you don't let people know what you like, you can't be poisoned. Greenspan really felt the loneliness of power.
Greenspan's troubles also come from when he uses the weapon of raising and lowering interest rates to hedge and adjust the market. The United Kingdom, Mexico and South Korea, which are thousands of kilometers away, are vulnerable, and the repayment risk of the foreign debt of the US dollar has begun to emerge. The major Wall Street banks have accumulated hundreds of billions of dollars in loans to these countries, and they are all facing huge losses. Beginning with the Mexican crisis in 1994, the Fed had to act as the "lender of last resort" to clean up the crisis mess.
However, in the 1990s, the loose toxicity had not reached the point of poisoning, and the doomsday had not come. Greenspan's power was invisible. Going further, he facilitated the merger of Travelers Insurance Group and Citibank in 1998. , officially opened the era of banking giants for Wall Street.
It would not be an exaggeration to call him the king of dollars. But the super-giant banking system has actually begun to hijack the "shadow president" who has the power to supply dollars, and when the "shadow president" is weakened, it goes into a frenzy and ravages the world.
By this time, the neocons were ready to retake the White House.
③
Cheney Restoration
(1) 2000: An unexpected surprise
In early 2000, under the arrangement of Bush Sr., Bush Jr. visited Dick Cheney. Because Bush Sr. understood that if Bush Jr. wants to enter the White House, he must not only win more "money and power" supporters, but also find someone who can defeat Greenspan. Bush Sr. is sure that Cheney is such a person.
But Cheney euphemistically rejected the proposal to serve as Bush's vice president, because it is very cheap to rush to agree.
Bush then made three visits to the cottage and begged Cheney to come out.
If Cheney continues to refuse, the chance to run the White House will slip away. He still needs to see another person at this time before he can fully agree. So he stepped back and said that he could help him find a suitable candidate for vice president.
As soon as Bush was gone, Cheney flew to Washington.
Greenspan is 70 years old, but still radiant.
Cheney cautiously disclosed Bush's campaign for the presidency, and after describing the vice president's criteria, he asked Greenspan if there was any candidate for such a vice president in Washington.
Greenspan naturally knows that Cheney is here to test himself. If there is a candidate recommended, after Bush takes office, the White House will associate the candidate with himself, which will soon further lead to the loss of independence of the Federal Reserve, and the power of the Federal Reserve will be serious. damaged.
"I think the selection criteria you just mentioned are actually yourself, you are the most suitable." Greenspan said.
Cheney squinted at Greenspan, and Greenspan suddenly realized that Cheney had already planned this. I regretted it as soon as I said it. Cheney is equivalent to convicting Greenspan that he has found the dead end of the Fed's power, and leaving the Fed chairman to support his proposal as vice president.
The next day, Bush announced that his running partner was Dick Cheney.
Greenspan, who confirmed the news, instead raised the federal funds rate. He faintly felt that he might have encountered a formidable opponent. He wants to add some material to the "muddy waters" of this campaign, and leave some room for action after the Fed. He no longer cares that raising interest rates these times will have a devastating blow to the growing stock price of the market.
Dick Cheney at this time is different from the past. He must succeed, no matter how he succeeds. Cheney always had a large team of lawyers by his side. The basic requirement for these lawyers is to be smarter than spies and familiar with every punctuation mark in every law in the United States.
With Cheney's help, Bush's campaign went smoothly.
On the evening of November 8, 2000, the voting work for the presidential election started one after another, and the results of the victory were announced by one state after another. Gore won 260 votes, Bush Jr. 246 votes. This means that whoever wins the final Florida state will be the next president of the United States.
Florida has never been the home of conservatism, and Gore is in control. That night, Bush Sr. nervously watched live TV at his home in Texas. If Bush Jr. fails again, the Bush family will be silent for another 20 years.
It's already 2:00 in the middle of the night, more than an hour after the scheduled time to announce the results, and Florida's vote tally has not yet come out. Everyone was anxiously waiting, only Cheney didn't feel worried at all.
Florida finally returned the news: Bush Jr. won Florida, and finally a total of 271 votes were elected as the next president. In an instant, Texas turned into a sea of joy, and Bush Sr. burst into tears and embraced each other.
Then came the accident, and an hour later, news came that Florida's vote count was wrong: Gore may actually have gotten more votes than Bush Jr.
Cheney in front of the TV looked surprised and serious, got up and went out to make an encrypted call.
The next morning, the whole of the United States was shocked by the bloodshed of the presidential election, and no one knew what to do next. Gore broke the silence and filed a lawsuit demanding a manual tally, which was in Cheney's hands. Cheney's legal team moved into action last night, reviewing US law article by article and starting a strategy to deal with it. Gore's appeal was within Cheney's response.
Each of Gore's proposals has since been rejected by a local Florida judge. In the end, Gore could only be forced to submit a ruling to the Supreme Court.
Cheney has always believed that the best boundary of power is the law. It can be said that except Cheney, there is no senior White House official in the United States who attaches great importance to the law. Cheney's legal team played a central role, and the Supreme Court's verdict came down quickly: uphold the local court's decision.
The local verdict was favorable for Bush Jr. So Bush was identified by the court as the next president of the United States.
After the dust settled, Bush Sr. breathed a sigh of relief that the White House would belong to the Bush family for at least four years.
Perhaps history will no longer give us the truth about how George W. Bush became president, whether the votes were counted or not, and every judge's consideration in court decisions will be sealed in history. But we must understand that Dick Cheney's ability to manipulate everything has become a reality. Anything can be controlled in his palm.
Greenspan in front of the TV already felt a chill down his spine. He knew Cheney too well. A ubiquitous Cheney force was about to flood the United States, and Cheney would use the law to fight the Fed.
Bush's cabinet candidates were announced later. The Secretary of Security is Cheney's confidant Rice, the Secretary of the Treasury is O'Neal, the CEO of Alcoa, whom Cheney let Greenspan persuade to take office, and the Secretary of State is General Powell, whom Cheney cooperated with in the first Gulf War.
The original candidate for Secretary of Defense was Smith, the FedEx CEO that Bush prefers, but Smith's "timely" heart attack disrupted Bush's plans. In the end, under the recommendation of Secretary of Security Rice, Rumsfeld successfully won the post of Secretary of Defense.
This Rumsfeld is not simple. Dick Cheney has just entered the political arena, and the first person to promote Cheney is Rumsfeld. This man will be a key figure in linking Iraq and terrorism in the second Iraq war.
Bush entered the White House, and the White House was Cheney's "White House".
Greenspan has begun to consider that for a Vice President Cheney who has intelligence, information, law, the military, and the economy, it may be time to hand over the power of the "shadow president".
(2) 2001: Fatal Strike
Bush's first six days in the White House. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and future U.S. Treasury Secretary O'Neal showed up at Cheney's vacation home. This will be Cheney's first head-to-head confrontation with Greenspan during the Bush era.
Greenspan took out a dozen sheets from his briefcase and laid them out on Cheney's desk.
Cheney didn't lean down to look at the form at all. He stared straight at Greenspan with his eyes fixed, and the right corner of his mouth shrank symbolically, saying, "The president and I both believe that the 1.3 trillion tax cut is OK."
The short words surpassed the usual way of communication. The situation of no one answering the call made O'Neal feel as if the air had frozen, and his goosebumps instantly rose. Cheney seemed to enjoy the silence, but for Greenspan and O'Neal it was an atmospheric ordeal, with O'Neal appropriately silent.
Greenspan had no choice but to explain to Cheney why it is not appropriate to cut taxes now: long-term interest rates will rise, leading to rising asset prices, which in turn will lead to higher financing costs for companies. The current economic recession is not suitable for tax cuts.
Cheney didn't respond to any of Greenspan's words, not even blinking at Greenspan. And Greenspan, who was constantly explaining, had entered a depressing atmosphere that he was not familiar with and was very disgusted with, and his inner unease eclipsed the crown of his "King of Dollars".
At this point, Cheney was thinking about his fishing experience while on vacation. Inadvertently release the bait, be patient, be patient, be patient. Then, with a bang, the line was reeled, and the fish took the bait.
Before visiting Cheney, O'Neal had discussed with Greenspan on the tax reduction communication strategy. O'Neal suggested that Greenspan add conditions to the tax reduction plan, such as: if the government's deficit rate is to what extent, the tax reduction plan will be appropriate. stop.
What Greenspan wondered was that, while he was trying to explain, the Secretary of the Treasury was as quiet as a sculpture.
Greenspan's forehead was sweating from the overheating heater in the room, and he suspected that Cheney had made the heater so hot on purpose.
"The economy is in recession now, and tax cuts will help the economy recover." Cheney spoke at this time, and he was slowly pulling up the fishing rod and preparing to reel in the line.
There are almost no flaws in Cheney's words, no numbers, no all affirmations, and no all denials. This equates to a perfect angle.
The treasury secretary's retreat made Greenspan back off, and he thought of another concern at this time. Because of the two interest rate hikes during the election period, the stock market bubble had burst. their siege. It won't be great if there is another conflict with the White House.
"The way to revive the economy is not as simple as cutting taxes, but also with loose monetary policy." O'Neill broke the silence. After O'Neal finished speaking, Greenspan agreed again and again, expressing his full support for creating a relaxed atmosphere.
Cheney knew that Greenspan had taken the bait, and he showed a murderous look: "The Reagan administration has proved that tax cuts are useful to stimulate the economy. Since it can create a relaxed atmosphere, it would be better."
O'Neal and Greenspan have been completely immersed in the chilling atmosphere created by Cheney, and the vice president who has been traveling in the Middle East has been unfathomable. Cheney watched the two of them motionless, waiting for them to make a statement.
Another period of silence. Greenspan finally gave in, agreeing to support the tax cut plan. Cheney did not forget to remind Greenspan: "Alan, and the slack you promised."
Greenspan suddenly understood why the kings of the Middle East had so much respect for Cheney. Greenspan couldn't hold out for an hour when Cheney really took control of the White House.
Years later, at a congressional hearing hosted by Democrats. Greenspan told the truth: In 2001, he actually did not support the complete tax reduction plan. He hoped to add some conditions to the tax reduction plan.
The Democratic lawmakers who heard the news were in an uproar, and they began to ridicule Greenspan for losing the independence of the Federal Reserve in order to curry favor with the White House. Greenspan then used professional but confusing terms to describe why he was on the tax cut side. But there is no mention of Dick Cheney's influence.
The White House won the first battle. After Bush took office, the first person he met on the first day was Greenspan. The two attended the White House's first regular press conference together.
"Greenspan is a person of outstanding ability, I have great confidence in his professional ability." Bush said. On TV, Greenspan was as gentle as a tamed monkey, but Dick Cheney was still absent from the camera.
Cheney's existence like a shadow easily won. Once the independence of the Federal Reserve is breached by the White House, it can only be led by the White House. Cheney thought.
(3) 2003: Dying
Lost in the first round. Greenspan found that he did not have any decent weapons in his hands. Technology stocks began to crack more seriously, and the problem of bad loans in banks spread widely. Wall Street's attack was more violent than expected. Support for the Fed chairman in financial circles is a measly 40 percent. The domestic media began to blame the stock market crisis on Greenspan's two inexplicable interest rate hikes in May 2000.
The recession did indeed begin before Bush took office. And it was completely fermented in 2001. Greenspan can only passively adjust the interest rate of 6.3% to the lowest level of 1.8% in 2002. After inflation, this is the equivalent of hedge funds borrowing within the banking system at almost no cost.
But investment data and unemployment remain vulnerable to weakness, and loose money coupled with low business productivity has pushed the economy toward deflation. Greenspan will spend most of the next three years in the war on possible deflation, while the low interest rate environment will continue and be the root cause of an even bigger bubble six years later.
This is good news for Cheney. After 9/11, Cheney will spend most of his time dealing with Saddam. Victory in the Iraq War will guarantee Bush's victory in the 2004 election.
"It feels good not to worry about Greenspan," Cheney thought sometimes.
The ally behind Bush's entry into the White House this time is neoconservatism. The neoconservative camp includes the real estate industry, and the real estate giants who backed Dukasky and Clinton back then turned to bet on the Bush administration. Bush reciprocated, approving more than $10 billion in subsidies for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
Greenspan intends to repeat the strategy he did to Bush Sr. 13 years ago: seize the time when Cheney's army is attacking the Middle East, and the rear is empty, in an attempt to launch an attack on the White House. Greenspan concluded that there was only a weak Bush in the White House, and would be difficult to deal with in the face of his own attacks.
He pointed out through a series of congressional hearings that the soaring prices of houses came from the soaring financial derivatives behind it and the government's annual subsidies of 10 billion US dollars.
Unfortunately, Greenspan completely miscalculated how much Bush Jr. depended on Cheney. "If you have any questions, you must let me know." This was the promise Cheney made to Bush before he became vice president. With Cheney around, Bush Jr. didn't need to think about anything, and Greenspan's attack would reach Cheney at the same time.
And just when the news began to accuse the Bush administration of the exchange of interests and deliberately inflamed the real estate bubble.
Bush and Cheney's special line was connected. Bush asked Cheney how to deal with the media accusations made by Greenspan. Cheney only said three words: house, terrorism, home.
Soon, the White House started a campaign to encourage people to buy a house as part of maintaining American security. Bush said at a regular White House press conference: The American people can say to terrorists that this is my home when they have a house. , welcome to my home.
When Bush Jr. linked the house to terrorism, the media attacks died down completely. What can they say in the face of terrorism.
Easily dissolve the attack into the invisible. Greenspan knew that this was Dick Cheney's style again, and he might have to accept the established fact of failure, and the idea of retiring first appeared in Greenspan's mind.
(4) 2004: The final blow
Even as the economy continues to weaken, Greenspan is still leading lawmakers to tangle with various economic data. Cheney has proposed a second $700 billion tax cut.
"President Reagan proved that deficits are irrelevant."
Greenspan didn't want to repeat Cheney's "fishing" trap. Turning to congressional hearings, he hopes to make it clear in public that he opposes the White House.
But after Bush won the war, the power of the government formed by Dick Cheney spread to almost every aspect, even to the Democratic Party. Any of Cheney's policies was linked to national distress or terrorism, and Greenspan was surprised by Congress' one-sided support for the White House's tax cuts.
"You've been in the chair of the Federal Reserve for too long," the Democratic congressman even quipped directly at Greenspan. This sarcastic remark became the object of ridicule on the next day's news. In the soaring stock market and housing prices, people really began to dislike this Jewish old man.
After Greenspan was unable to stop the White House's new round of tax cuts, the economy began to recover strongly, and the GDP growth rate fell back to 2% in the quarter, which further questioned Greenspan's professionalism, and Greenspan's power was under attack. to a fundamental disintegration.
In the face of the overwhelming pressure created by the White House, the chairman of the Federal Reserve has little room to exert his power.
Simply, the physically and mentally exhausted Greenspan does not need to bear too much time. His term is coming to an end, and he believes that the Bush administration will never give him the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. So on the day the next Fed chairman was announced, he took his family to a resort hotel in Chicago.
Surprisingly, that night, he saw on TV that the Bush administration announced that the next chairman of the Federal Reserve was himself. Greenspan was completely shocked. Then he called the White House with mixed feelings and thanked Bush. Greenspan knew it was an oath from the White House to tame the Fed chairman.
Even if Greenspan is re-elected, he will only have two years at the Fed (the number of years for the chairman's total tenure is stipulated in Fed law), and Bush Jr. will have five years left. Greenspan, who returned from vacation, already felt that everyone in the Fed was speculating, and Cheney had in mind who would be the next Fed chairman after Greenspan.
In fact, this person has long been arranged among the Fed members.
Just two years ago, in 2002, before the Second Iraq War, Blinder, one of the Fed's members, "timely" filed an application to end his term. After Bush's nomination, the little-known Bernanke successfully entered the Federal Reserve, filling Blind's vacancy.
The relationship between Bernanke and Cheney can no longer be verified. After all, the shadow only appears at night, but the arrangement before the Iraq War should be more for the purpose of defending Greenspan.
Bernanke's task is to wait for the opportunity to completely overthrow the way Greenspan manipulated the Fed, and prevent the Fed from being able to dominate the White House again.
After eight years of keeping a low profile, Cheney has thoroughly figured out that the Fed's power comes from everyone's speculation about when Greenspan will tighten and loosen the monetary faucet. This is the most fundamental reason why the Bush administration defeated Washington.
Bernanke was the one who gave Greenspan the final blow.
At this time, the $700 billion tax cut plan was gradually implemented, the economic recovery was strong, and Greenspan's authority was challenged from within the Federal Reserve.
When Greenspan was weakening day by day, Fed member Bernanke, who had been silent for more than two years, proposed at this time that the Fed's management should not allow financial institutions, investment banks, and fund managers to guess the Fed's monthly, weekly, and daily guesses. What is the chairman thinking. Instead, the goal of the Fed's adjustment should be made public, so that Wall Street and the world know what the Fed will not do for a period of time in the future.
That is, when you want to stay loose, you need to tell the market how long to stay loose. In this way, everyone invests money in a certain asset and does not have to worry about future costs. This is an extremely useful way to drive the continued recovery of the economy.
This is tantamount to turning the power of the Fed chairman that Greenspan has cultivated for many years into a storm. The Fed chairman must clearly tell the market about future monetary policy.
Bernanke's new theory brought a sense of revolution to the Fed members. People already felt that Greenspan was not long at the Fed. In the management revolution proposed by Bernanke, even Greenspan himself voted in favor.
Within a minute of Bernanke's proposal passing, Cheney had received the message.
Cheney called Bush Jr.: "The Fed is completely taken over by us, Mr. President."
At this time, Bush Jr., who was at home, showed a victory gesture to Bush Sr. Bush Sr. smiled slightly. He did not expect that Greenspan collapsed so quickly. The power of the dollar is too volatile, he thought.
The 15-year feud between Greenspan and the Bush family is over.
Cheney on the other end of the phone finally officially took over as the "shadow president" and began to take full control of the country without any dead ends. Until 2008, Bush and Dick Cheney stepped down.
The way Bernanke manages the dollar has completely liberated the risk awareness of Wall Street traders, and the number of derivatives is still growing exponentially. The era of big banking that Greenspan ushered in is blowing with the wind.
A crisis without Greenspan is coming.
finished~
Note: The full text is adapted, and the data comes from various sources.
The article has been modified on 2019-04-26
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