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"Big Short" tells the story of such a group of awesome people. They are three groups of people who don’t have much overlap. They finally got huge returns through the 2008 financial crisis. Among them, Michael Berry, played by Christian Bell, got 489% of the return and made a net profit of more than 2.6 billion; Steve Ka Riel's Steve Eisman team netted 1 billion, and Brad Pitt's Ben Hocht earned his team up to 80 million in return. Beforehand, they did not have the energy of Soros to short the US financial market. How did their "shorts" and "big shorts" come from? Pass insurance. Like stocks and bonds, insurance is part of the financial market. Transactions in the insurance market are still part of the big financial transactions. The above three teams were able to short the US financial market because they, like Nathan and Soros, took advantage of the asymmetry of information. The first is Michael Berry. His post suffix is ​​MD Managing Director, not an ordinary CEO. As an otaku manager, he uses big data analysis and reads credit rating agencies to determine a large number of borrowers’ credit ratings. The original data discovered the truth behind the numbers and inferred the hidden worries of the real estate market, and then began to short the US real estate subprime market; then, his actions were discovered by a bank manager, and the young manager was Ryan. Jared Venett, played by Gosling, as a business manager, he sniffed out the business opportunities, but he had no money on his own, so he kept fooling others into making shots, and finally he met Steve Eisman The team, the two parties, after testing, finally decided to join forces, and also invested in the short subprime market; the last team is the two market guys, accidentally discovered Michael Berry’s information, which is also regarded as a treasure, so it is like Jared Venett kept fooling others, and finally they met Ben Hocht, a rich man. In the end, all three teams made a lot of money! The three teams do not have such a large amount of funds, directly driving the ups and downs of the entire subprime mortgage market. They sensed the crisis in the subprime mortgage market in advance, and the way to sell short was through CDS (Credit Default Swap ) Credit default swaps. To make it simpler, to use an analogy is to use an insurance product. Under normal circumstances, most of our insurance products are bought to protect ourselves. For example, if you have money to treat your illness, you can reduce your losses if you lose your car. If your house is on fire, you won’t lose your money. These teams, the CDS that they shot, were originally intended to protect the subprime mortgage market from collapsing. Moreover, this is an insurance that requires continuous investment. For example, Michael Bray invested 5 million US dollars in it and purchased a large amount of insurance. As long as the subprime mortgage market is insured, there is no problem with insurance premiums. In fact, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2007, and Michael Bray first started it in 2005. In two years, the amount of insurance that needs to be paid has made the company he worked for almost overwhelming. Just like Nathan Rothschild's performance before and after the Battle of Waterloo, if you make a mistake in judgment, not only is the loss of money a problem, Bry's company may collapse. However, the charm of the insurance purchased by Bray is that once the subprime mortgage market collapses, they can get huge compensation from the insurance company. OK! Just like the professional counterfeiters active in the Chinese market, the three teams of Michael Berry, Steve Eisman, and Ben Hocht deliberately bought insurance that was bound to collapse, and then waited for huge compensation. . Their method of shorting the market is that simple! However, whether the subprime mortgage market is bound to collapse, not many people in that era dared to make this package. Even if everyone saw the problem, they did not know when it would collapse. The keenness of the three teams of Michael Berry, Steve Eisman, and Ben Hocht is that they discovered the problem in a timely manner and acted decisively. Just like gambling, the subprime mortgage market will collapse in two or three years. , As a result, they bet right. At that time, many people in the financial market recognized the risks in the subprime mortgage market, but everyone didn't know what to do. At this time, the three teams of Michael Berry, Steve Eisman, and Ben Hocht were actually buying insurance for the subprime mortgage. This was a fool in the eyes of others. For things that are about to be dumped, you are actually buying insurance for them, hoping that they will not fall. This is not stupid. Those who sell insurance are so happy to see these stupid behaviors like this group of fools. Some people are willing to buy insurance that is already difficult to sell, and they have bought so many. As a result, no one thought that it was a speculative investment at all, with greater profits hidden. The three teams of Michael Berry, Steve Eisman, and Ben Hocht all made a lot of money in the end. But why can they find that there will be problems in the subprime mortgage market? Here must talk about the next loan crisis. The following may need to use a little knowledge of finance, I will try to be as simple as possible and a little bit more vernacular. The so-called real estate, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are still in a state of purchase restrictions. You know, before the purchase restriction, many people made a fortune by investing in real estate. I met an investor who owned 38 houses in Beijing on the train. At that time, investing in real estate, sitting on more than 30 houses, in fact, you don't need much money. Generally, as long as you can afford the first house loan. Assume that the original fund is 500,000, which is enough for the down payment to buy a house. Suppose you pay a 30% down payment, pay 500,000 yuan, and the new house is worth 1.5 million yuan. Then you will have a house valued at 1.5 million when the cost of the house is down. At this time, you can take the house book to the bank for mortgage. With a house worth 1.5 million as mortgage, you can easily borrow 1 million. With this 1 million, you can go to the market to make a down payment of 500,000, and then buy two houses worth 1.5 million. In this way, you actually only have 500,000. After two loans, you already have three houses, and the market value is already 4.5 million. If you continue to mortgage the two houses that you bought later, and keep falling back, then you can easily own more than 30 houses by rolling around. Of course, after multiple loans, you will have to repay huge bank interest every month. At this time, you can choose to sell one of the houses every three to five, set it up for cash, and repay the loan while eating and drinking to live the life of a rich person. However, in case, the real estate market is down and your house cannot be sold, then you may lose the capital chain, the bank will cut off the supply, and all the houses will have problems and collapse. The bubble and crisis in the entire real estate market are probably like this. The above situation is a large number of things that happened in China a few years ago, and it is still not digested. Fortunately, China's real estate market has been rising without a crash, and the government is underpinning it. However, now that bank loans are becoming more and more standardized, and increased ceiling purchases have made market speculation unsustainable, and have somewhat ensured the safety of some markets. However, the earliest investors have already made a fortune. The situation of these real estate investments in China is from the perspective of investors. From another perspective, from the perspective of the bank. Still take 500,000 as the down payment. 500,000 is the down payment for a house, and the total price of the house is 1.5 million. To buy this house, the owner needs to borrow 1 million from the bank, and the agreed repayment period is 30 years. With a loan of 1 million, plus interest, the bank's total income will be more than 1.2 million in 30 years. This 200,000 interest is the bank's normal income. However, as a financial institution, banks always want to make more. They will also try their best to create new credit products in order to obtain more cash and make more money. So, now, a 30-year period with a total income of 1.2 million yuan can be sold as a new project. Because it takes 30 years for the bank to recover the full 1.2 million, they are unwilling to wait that long, so they just pack it up and declare to the public that I have a 30-year 1.2 million high-quality project, and now I need to advance this amount in advance, please Come and buy this item, you will give me 1.2 million now, and will give you 1.21 million in half a year with interest. The net profit of 10,000 in half a year is actually not much. This kind of thing, the current P2P, P2B, and various financial products of banks, basically look like this. Treat the expected return as a financial product for sale. The biggest crisis here is that in case the bank’s sales of 1.2 million yuan of proceeds, because the buyer cannot repay the loan, the proceeds will become fake. The second sale of false products will surely bring more falsehoods and form a series of market bubbles. Uncertain day, the chain will be dropped, then the financial crisis will come. The same is true for subprime mortgages in the United States. In the US securities market, some real estate loan products that are not so recyclable are packaged and sold again, which is subprime mortgages. As a result, a false prosperity in the financial market has been created. Then, the three teams of Michael Berry, Steve Eisman, and Ben Hocht first smelled the crisis and went short. In the future, we have all seen that the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, and the three teams of Michael Berry, Steve Eisman, and Ben Hocht made a lot of money. This is the story that "Big Short" is going to tell. Three isolated stories are cleverly linked together to perform a humorous and beautiful Wall Street tragicomedy. This story is so interesting that "Big Short" won an Oscar for best adapted screenplay. As for the actors in the film, whether it is Christian Bale, Steve Carell, Ryan Gosling, or Brad Pitt, they all have very good performances, and they are worth seeing.

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