Walking out of the theater, I have been thinking about such a question, will there really be a Terminator in the future? If so, can humanity escape this war completely?
For the first question, the answer is almost certainly, there will be. And, you and I will see you in my lifetime.
The Terminator is, to put it bluntly, an artificial intelligence life form. At present, artificial intelligence is everywhere around us: computers, mobile phones, CNC lathes, smart refrigerators, robots that can dance, and soymilk machines that can cook soymilk regularly. Strictly speaking, any machine that can be programmed to perform a specific function is artificial intelligence. Of course, they are all weak. Even the computer Deep Blue, who can play chess and win the world championship, is actually weak, and you can knock it apart by kicking its case hard. The reason why they are weak is that they are only AI (Artificial Intelligence) to achieve specific functions, their behavior is completely controlled by programs that have been written to death, and they are only good at specific areas of program control. For example, a CNC lathe can make patterns much more beautifully and quickly than by hand, but if you ask it to make you a breakfast, it's completely useless. This type of artificial intelligence can be called "weak artificial intelligence". At present, the artificial intelligence we see around us is of this type, although now they look cute and cute, and there is no threat to human beings.
However, "strong artificial intelligence" is different. Strong artificial intelligence refers to those intelligent machines that can reason (Reasoning) and solve problems (Problem_solving), and they have the ability to learn and evolve (reprograming, automatically optimizing their own coding). The initial strong artificial intelligence may still be weak, and it may take many years for a robot with the intelligence of an ant to evolve into a robot with the intelligence of a monkey. However, don't underestimate the speed of evolution. Once it reaches a certain level, the subsequent evolution will accelerate based on the previous basis, which will be exponential evolution.
Human society is walking along this path. It took humans hundreds of thousands of years to go from the hunting age to the agricultural age; several thousand years to go from the agricultural age to the industrial age; and only two hundred years to go from the industrial age to the atomic age; after that, it took only a few decades , human society has entered the information age. Because every step backwards builds on the foundations ahead. In the same way, when the level of strong artificial intelligence approaches and reaches the level of human beings, it will not take long for it to advance further and leave humans far behind. Because computers are faster and have more storage space, they don't suffer from the innate limitations of brain size that humans do. For example, an AI that reaches monkey level will use the monkey's IQ to optimize its own code. After each self-improvement, it got smarter than before. Of course, this evolution is very slow because of the low initial level. However, when it slowly reaches the level of Einstein, it will optimize itself with Einstein's IQ, and this time the evolution will be easier and better than before. This improvement made him a lot smarter than Einstein, making his subsequent improvements even more pronounced. Repeating this, the intelligence level of this strong artificial intelligence is getting longer and faster, and the time-consuming of each optimization is getting shorter and shorter. In the end, it is improving almost every minute and every second.
There is still debate about when AI will reach human-level intelligence. A survey of hundreds of scientists showed that they believe the median year for strong AI to emerge is 2040 — just 25 years from now. This may not sound like much, but keep in mind that the evolution of AGI is very fast. It may take decades for an artificial intelligence system to reach the level of human infant intelligence, and when this point occurs, the computer's perception of the world is about the same as that of a four-year-old child; and an hour after this point, the computer It is possible to understand the physical theory that unifies general relativity and quantum mechanics; and within an hour and a half after this, the intelligence level of this strong artificial intelligence has reached 170,000 times that of ordinary humans.
This level of superintelligence is beyond our comprehension, just as bees do not understand Marxist philosophy. In our language, we call an IQ of 130 smart and an IQ of 85 stupid, but we don't know how to describe an IQ of 12952, there is no such concept in human language.
But what we do know is that the history of mankind defeating lions and tigers to dominate the earth has taught us a truth - intelligence is power. That is to say, a strong artificial intelligence, once created, will be the most powerful thing in the history of the earth, and all living things, including humans, can only succumb to it - and all of this may be in the next few decades. year occurs.
Think about it, if our brains can invent aircraft cannons, then an intelligent creature 100, 1,000, or even 1 billion times smarter than us might be able to manipulate all the atoms in the world anytime, anywhere. Those abilities that seem to us supernatural and belong only to an almighty God—to create a world, to destroy a world—may be as simple as flipping a light switch to a superintelligence. It will be easy to immortalize human beings, cure various incurable diseases, solve world famine, and allow humans to emigrate into space.
When a superintelligence is born, it will be like an almighty God descending on earth to us.
All we care about at this point is - will it be a merciful God?
Therefore, it is very unwise to rashly invite such a god before establishing a complete knowledge reserve in the field of artificial intelligence security. Creating something smarter than oneself is a fundamental Darwinian mistake, just as a mother sparrow decides to adopt a little owl and feels that the owl will protect the sparrow family when she grows up, the most likely outcome is that the sparrow family will succeed in the owl's meal. ..so
for the second question, if humans do create Terminators (aka strong AI), can humans get out of this war completely? The answer is self-evident. For a group of ants, it is unimaginable to defeat a fully armed Terminator, not to mention that this Terminator will continue to evolve. Therefore, the Terminator in the movie is also weak. Except for being stronger and not afraid of death, there is no improvement in IQ compared with humans! The real Terminator should be similar to Scarlett in "Super Body", who is omniscient and omnipotent. He can beat Captain America, Iron Man and Hulk every minute, so that the world knows who is the boss of the Women's Federation.
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