In fact, the mathematical theory applied here is very simple. Baseball players have various technical indicators, such as base rate, hit rate, intercept rate, etc. From these probabilities, the performance of players on bases, hits, interceptions, etc. can be calculated. Mathematical expectations, combined, are the mathematical expectations for the team to win. In theory, it is the most scientific to use these indicators to select players to form a team. However, in actual situations, major teams are based on the scout’s experience and subjective feelings when selecting players, including looks, accents, backgrounds, etc. and baseball. Irrelevant indicators, which distort the supply and demand of the player market. A group of players with good technical indicators are not interested because of irrelevant factors and the prices are cheap. This makes the Oakland Athletics team lacking funds with Billy Beane as the manager in the film. Cost-effective" team opportunity. Finally, relying on this theoretical support, the bottom-ranked Oakland team won 20 games in a row, breaking the historical record of Major League Baseball.
But mathematical expectations apply to a large number of repeated trials, so it can be effective in the number of wins, but it cannot guarantee the victory of a single game (such as the final). Whether the performance of a single game is stable depends on the variance, which does not seem to be within the scope of the theory in the film, or it is usually too expensive to expect high variance and small players. This is why the Oakland team, which has been gaining throughout the season, will lose in the finals.
Some people who questioned this theory pointed out that the Oakland team's record has been declining in recent years. That is because the major league teams have adopted the method of probability theory to select players. The market is no longer distorted. At this time, teams with rich natural resources are likely to get real skills. Players with strong indicators.
The film tells that this theory is not a boring classroom teaching, but a fierce competition and a fierce contest between the old and the new behind the scenes. The rules of baseball are more complicated, but audiences who don’t understand know that it’s good to go to base and hit the ball far. This film handles this very well, grabbing these two indicators to make a fuss, and using sharp and straightforward editing. The mid-to-long-range fixed-focus lens and documentary-style clips are very effective in establishing theatrical conflict and atmosphere, so that audiences who do not understand baseball can watch the power of moneyball with enthusiasm. In the film, say "How can't you" fall in love with baseball."
In addition to vividly telling the true legend in the history of Major League Baseball and advocating this theory, this film also does not forget to portray the characters in detail, otherwise it will not be able to rank as a sports film. Nominated for Oscar. Brad Pitt played the role of the team manager who led the implementation of moneyball theory. This manager was capable, very pragmatic, not empathetic, firmly believed in scientific theory, and was able to withstand pressure very well. However, in private, he has been shaken and painful about the failures before success, and even superstitiously believes that going to the game will bring bad luck. He has become a character with different levels. At the same time, the film also added his and his daughter to enrich the relationship. His warm side. Brad Pitt’s acting skills have indeed grown slowly after 20 years of baptism. The film has reached a certain level and has also been nominated for the actor, but like all his movies, his role is still very obvious. Traces, there is still a significant gap with the standards of my acting star.
In contrast, the chubby supporting actor Jonah Hill erased his personal traces and played a Yale graduate who had no athletic cells but brought mathematical theory into the baseball team. In the conference room, the conceited look of the old scouts full of seats contrasted sharply with the nerdy but hidden excitement of his nerd, which made people laugh. As the plot progresses, we find that there is also a passionate soul under the shell of the fat nerd. There is no doubt that he can get a nomination for best male match.
Excellent scene scheduling and editing make 2 hours not boring, and at the same time, it avoids knowledge barriers. It is not magical and reliable to let the audience understand a professional theory. ), and then created two plump characters. This is a good movie.
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