After decades of conflict between Palestine and Israel, no one can destroy anyone, no one can live in peace, and even Europeans can't stand it. So under the coordination of Norway, Palestine and Israel began to secretly contact in Oslo, and after more than a dozen negotiations, they reached a "Declaration of Principles of Interim Self-Government Arrangements" (the Oslo Agreement) that gave people hope of peace.
Although the conflict between Palestine and Israel continued, generally speaking, there has not been a large-scale comprehensive war like the previous five Middle East wars, and most people on both sides have higher expectations for future peace. Of course, Hamas and Iran behind it, and the Gaza Strip controlled by Hamas are excluded.
I have been shouting for peace in the Middle East for decades, but peace does not come as soon as it is said, and is entangled with many factors. The complexity of the conflict can be seen from the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
History of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
First Middle East War (1948)
Before the war: The United Nations passed the resolution on the partition of Israel and Palestine. Arab countries were dissatisfied and expressed their determination to drive Israel into the sea. They formed a coalition of tens of thousands of Arab countries, equipped with heavy equipment such as aircraft, tanks, armored vehicles, and cannons. On the other hand, the newly established Israel is far behind in equipment, most of which are light weapons, and the number of troops is not large. Before the war, all parties were unanimously optimistic that the Arabs could drive Israel into the sea.
Outcome: Israel won. Not only was it not driven into the sea, but it also occupied 4/5 of the land in Palestine. The Arab coalition forces retreated to their own country in disgrace.
Second Middle East War (1965)
Before the war: A revolution broke out in Egypt, expelled the British and French forces, and restricted the passage of Britain, France and Israel through the Suez Canal. So Israel joined Britain and France to attack Egypt.
Outcome: Under pressure from the United States and the Soviet Union, Britain and France withdrew from the battle without achieving a strategic goal. Although Israel defeated Egypt, it did not occupy Egyptian land. Although Israel withdrew from the Sinai Peninsula, Egypt lifted the blockade of the Strait of Tiran, and navigation in the Gulf of Aqaba was no longer hindered.
Third Middle East War (1967)
Before the war: Arab countries received assistance from the Soviet Union, and they regrouped and prepared to join forces to drive Israel into the sea. When Israel realized the danger, it preempted the attack. It first attacked from all directions to seize air supremacy, and then attacked Egypt in the south, Jordan in the east, and Syria in the north.
Results: Egypt, Jordan, and Syria suffered heavy losses, with more than 60,000 casualties and captured, while only 983 were killed in Israel. Israel has occupied 65,000 square kilometers of land in the Gaza Strip and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, the West Bank, the Old City of Jerusalem and the Golan Heights in Syria. One million Arabs and Palestinians have fled their homes and become refugees during the war.
Fourth Middle East War (1973)
Before the war: Egypt and Syria were mainly planning to regain lost territory, and the two countries jointly launched an offensive against Israel. Egypt and the Soviet Union fell out, lost the Soviet aid, and only Syria received Soviet aid. Israel still has access to U.S. aid, with fewer enemies more.
Results: Egypt and Israel have basically maintained their pre-war confrontation. Some lands have changed hands on both sides, but neither has taken much advantage.
Fifth Middle East War (1982)
Before the war: Syria and Lebanon on one side, and the PLO in Lebanon. On the other side are pro-Israel militias in Israel and Lebanon. The PLO assassinated the Israeli ambassador to the UK, while Israel wanted to eliminate the PLO and Islamic militants in Lebanon that threatened it.
Outcome: Most of the PLO armed forces and Israel withdrew from Lebanon, the PLO was weakened, and instead created conditions for the rise of another extremist group Hamas. Part of Lebanon freed from Syrian control.
After decades of fighting, the mentality of both Palestine and Israel has changed, and this change has become one of the incentives for the Oslo Agreement.
Palestine-Israel Status
After the five Middle East wars, most Arab countries realized that Israel could not be eliminated, but Israel's intention of aggression against most Arab countries was not obvious. In addition to the internal contradictions of Arab countries and the more intense contradictions with Shiite Persians, Therefore, one after another, overtly or covertly, stopped military confrontation with Israel.
The PLO found that the rights and interests that cannot be obtained by force can be easily obtained through negotiation. In addition, the rise and threat of Hamas, which is more extreme in Palestine, has gradually abandoned direct military confrontation with Israel. This is how the Oslo Agreement is. an opportunity.
After the agreement, the PLO still had some confrontation and conflict with Israel from time to time, but in general it was moving towards peace, especially after the end of the US-Soviet hegemony, the PLO established its own rule in the West Bank with the help of Israel The region has established extensive economic cooperation with Israel, and Israel no longer regards the PLO in the West Bank as a hostile force. The two sides have basically reached a state of good-neighborliness and friendship (this is rarely mentioned in our news) .
In the Gaza Strip, which is controlled by Hamas, it is still poor and aggressive, and has lost the support of most Arab countries. It can only rely on Iran, which is hostile to Arab countries, to provide it with various help.
Now basically Israel and the PLO are on one side, and the hostile Hamas is on the other.
In the just-concluded Israeli general election, the new Israeli government to replace the right-wing Likud group includes the left-wing coalition and Arab parties. Now Israel, whether it is in the ruling group or the citizens, has a certain proportion of Arab groups. It can be said that it is half an Arab secular country. It is difficult for other Arab countries to attack Israel in the name of purely eliminating infidels. , and Hamas, which relies on Iran, is more isolated in the Arab world.
Of course, true peace in the Middle East cannot be achieved by the pure good wishes of Palestine and Israel alone. The intricate forces behind it will not easily allow complete peace in the Middle East, but it is at least a good start for now.
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