51% option

Daija 2022-03-16 09:01:02

The story goes like this: Boss said that he would buy 480,000 option contracts to obtain more than 50% of the equity. First of all, the total number of shares outstanding = 93.4mln. So we have to add a condition that one contract corresponds to one hundred shares. This belongs to the market convention, but it's not too much. Therefore, the proportion of Boss's equity is 48/93.4, which is indeed slightly higher than 50%.

Then calculate the option price: stock price px_last = 31gbp. Invest 30mln pounds, the price of each option = 3000/48 = 62.5.

We assume that what the boss wants is ATM. It is impossible to acquire such a large number of options, and OTM is even more inoperable.

We assume that the dividend yield is equal to the risk-free rate. It is purely to simplify the calculation, and it will not deviate very much from reality.

Then there are:

If the option expires in one month, implied vol = 17.63%

If the option expires in three months, implied vol = 10.18%

If the option expires in twelve months, implied vol = 5.09%

The latter two are too outrageous and not included in the calculation. Consider 17.63% of the one-month option. As a reference, the market value of Bayer in Germany today is 12.64bln. A pharmaceutical company with a market value of 1% of Bayer (not even considering this is The film 20 years ago), the annualized volatility of the one-month period is less than 20%, which is completely impossible.

Without mentioning option prices, this operation itself is meaningless. Is the option physical or cash settled? The latter is equivalent to asking for money directly; the former cannot be bought in the market at all and can only be bought from the heads of pharmaceutical companies, which is also equivalent to asking for money directly. You have pointed your gun at people's heads, why are you still playing with this kind of slab? Even if it can be bought on the market, who can sell more than 50% of the volume? This will blow up the supply of the entire market and tell the world that there is a problem.

Before playing with fancy vocabulary, you should do a little basic calculation. Those who don't know how to do it can see it, and those who know it want to laugh. What is going on with so much effort?

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Extended Reading
  • Levi 2022-04-23 07:01:18

    Ugly! The script is too weak, there are only all kinds of unnutritious blasting gunfights and racing cars, as well as all kinds of handsome salesmen of Tom, and what is even more excessive is that the heroine is too good. . . Made me miss the mano in the first movie so much. PS When I saw the pigeons, I was very embarrassed.

  • Mozelle 2022-03-26 09:01:02

    Especially Wu Yusen fan, but not very attractive, the rhythm is problematic

Mission: Impossible II quotes

  • [at the races]

    Sean Ambrose: Darling, you won!

    Nyah Nordoff-Hall: I suppose I did.

    Sean Ambrose: What made you pick her? That old nag's never won a thing.

    Nyah Nordoff-Hall: [holds up racing form] "A Thief in the Night."

    Sean Ambrose: Ha! Say no more.

  • Hugh Stamp: [referring to Nyah, standing in Sean's mansion] Why do you think she's really here?

    Sean Ambrose: From her point of view or mine?

    Hugh Stamp: Well, she wasn't exactly gagging for it when she left you six months ago.