Al-Qaida leader bin Laden was shot dead more than 60 kilometers away from the Pakistani capital. In the coming days, the security situation will tighten. Jake Lee, Carlos Tejada, and John Bussey of The Wall Street Journal discussed this. Some intelligence analysts believe that the probability of success of this operation is only 60%.
US President Barack Obama also chose a risky attack strategy: directly attack this house in deep Pakistan instead of bombing with stealth fighters. This may allow American combatants to have face-to-face confrontations with each other in this labyrinth-like building.
From caves in southern Afghanistan to provinces in eastern Pakistan that are not legally bound, the pursuit of bin Laden over the past decade has caused great setbacks for the United States. This time American officials decided to take a risk. An evaluation of this US decision shows that it was built to a certain extent on unrelenting planning over the past few months, but the final decision to take action relied on intuition.
Osama bin Laden, the leader of Al Qaeda and who planned the largest terrorist attack in U.S. history, was killed in Pakistan on Sunday, local time. US President Barack Obama confirmed the news on Sunday night. An American official said that everyone thought that apart from bin Laden, it was impossible for anyone else to hide in that house. Some people speculate that another possibility is that Ayman al-Zawahiri, the No. 2 figure of Al-Qaida, is hiding here.
In December last year, the Central Intelligence Agency (Central Intelligence Agency) convened a secret meeting to raise tens of millions of dollars in funds to launch a five-month special operation. The raid that killed Osama bin Laden on Sunday ended the operation perfectly. The reporter wrote this report after interviewing nearly 12 officials from the White House, intelligence agencies, the Pentagon and Congress and listening to relevant briefings.
Obviously, this heavily fortified complex in Abbottabad, Pakistan was built to conceal someone who does not want outsiders to see him. It has become the focus of interest for American intelligence agencies. By last fall, the United States had known that most of the 22 residents in this building were relatives of one of bin Laden’s most trusted messengers. The "messenger" is Osama bin Laden's confidant, and is responsible for sending messages between al Qaeda leaders and al Qaeda's global "friends".
But another family also lives in this three-story building, whose identity remains a mystery to this day. The intelligence officer knew that there was an adult male living in the building, but he could not be seen because he never showed up.
Bin Laden, the leader of al-Qaeda who has been secretly for years, was killed by the U.S. military last Sunday. His last hiding place was a house about 64 kilometers from the Pakistani capital Islamabad. The United States has been searching for Osama bin Laden for more than a decade and missed good opportunities six times. One setback after another sowed the seeds for Sunday's action.
In 2002, just a year after bin Laden escaped from the hunt in the Tora Bora mountainous area of Afghanistan, through interrogation of al-Qaeda members detained by the CIA, the United States learned the pseudonym of a courier of bin Laden. This messenger is the disciple of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the mastermind behind the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001, and the captured Al-Qaeda third figure Abu Faraj al-Libbi (Abu Faraj al-Libbi). Faithful assistant. U.S. officials have not yet released the name of the courier.
It took several years for the United States to know the real name of this messenger. In 2007, CIA analysts finally knew the person's name and started looking for him. Nevertheless, the trace of this person is hard to find. In February 2009, Panetta's first briefing on bin Laden after taking office as the director of the CIA was disappointing. During that time, American intelligence personnel had caught a glimpse of this messenger working with his brother. But the two were very careful and never revealed their whereabouts.
It took more than a year to achieve a major breakthrough. In late August 2010, the CIA was able to follow the messenger until he reached his residence, which is the building complex in Abbottabad.
The United States has launched an intensive investigation of this complex. Teams from the CIA, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency used satellites and other surveillance equipment to study it. Panetta receives weekly updates on the situation.
The building was built in 2005 at the end of a narrow dirt road on the outskirts of the city. The main structure is a three-story building with few windows facing the street. There is a platform on the third floor and a seven-foot (approximately 2.1 m) high wall to prevent others from seeing the inside.
An American official said that as soon as intelligence personnel saw it, they knew there was a problem.
The spies cannot even search for clues by digging through the trash. Unlike almost all the neighbors, the people living in this complex burned and disposed of the garbage by themselves.
In September 2010, Obama heard about this complex, and learned that it may live important targets of the war on terrorism-the messenger and his family, as well as his brother's family.
An American official said that besides this, there was a third mysterious family living in it. The official said that there is an adult male. The intelligence personnel do not know what he looks like, but they know that he lives in it. There is also a woman who may be his wife and more than one child; this family may be related to Osama bin Laden. Some families match. The members of the third family never left this residence.
In November 2010, Panetta ordered the National Counterterrorism Center (National Counterterrorism Center) to give 10 plans to better understand who is living in this complex. The Anti-Terrorism Center submitted 38 proposals, but only a few are feasible. An American official said that we must pay attention to the trade-offs.
There is also an equally urgent concern about this operation: the United States may let Pakistanis receive information, and Pakistanis are deemed unable to bear confidentiality trust. An American official said that the Pakistani side had provided some intelligence about the courier to the United States, but may not realize his importance. Some U.S. officials have long suspected that someone in the Pakistani government or military is providing assistance to bin Laden.
The evidence is still inadequate, but Panetta, the CIA director, determined in December 2010 that the intelligence already possessed was sufficiently convincing to take action. He held a secret meeting with members of Congress, hoping to obtain tens of millions of dollars in funding to implement a grand plan for large-scale intelligence gathering of the complex.
After Panetta received the money from Congress in December 2010, CIA analysts still did not agree on the possibility of bin Laden living there. Some people think the probability is 60%, others say it is 80%. An official said that this uncertainty makes Panetta very embarrassed, but he believes that even if bin Laden is only half the possibility of living there, the American people will support the operation.
In February 2011, Panetta believed that the time had come for an action plan. He met with Lieutenant General William McRaven, the head of the U.S. Special Forces Command, and requested that a small team be sent to develop a plan of action.
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