Britain at the crossroads of history

Brexit

In 2016, when the results of the British referendum showed that the Brexitists had won, I was on the highway back to my hometown. When listening to foreign podcasts on my mobile phone in the car, the words repeatedly mentioned are shock, unknown territory, and panic. After Cameron announced his resignation, when he walked back to the Prime Minister's residence at No. 10 Downing Street in the flashlight, he was humming a small song recorded by his recording equipment, and finally he said: "Right!" Okay! He is free, maybe he is still gloating, that hapless guy is trying to clean up the mess now? I suddenly remembered that a British teacher told me in a chat 20 years ago that because of the European Union, I can't eat a certain kind of fish! Now the British people are pushing themselves into the biggest political whirlpool after World War II in a mess. The young British people on Facebook complained and disappointed, while the retired old people in the workers' community bar cheered. I kept thinking in the car, in recent decades, the United Kingdom and the European Union, culture, politics, and military are inseparable, and the economy is booming. Why should they suddenly give up all the opportunities to lead the whole of Europe in the future, give up the European Common Market, and even talk about it frequently? How about becoming the model of a fringe country like Norway? What kind of political shock is this? Britain decided to leave the European Union. Has it really retreated?

Just a prelude

The Brexit referendum is only the beginning of this storm. In the following two years, the entire British Isles opened a roller coaster-style drama that would be difficult for Shakespeare to write. After the 2016 referendum, British Prime Minister Cameron immediately announced his resignation, and the election of the leader of the Conservative Party kicked off. The Brexit faction in his party was determined to win, but he did not expect that in the referendum, the former mayor of London, Boris Johnson, the popular candidate of the political star leader of the Brexit faction establishment forces, suddenly had an infight with Michael Govu at a critical moment and withdrew from the election sadly ( The relationship between the two and the dramatic infighting process can be made into another movie), and Govu also suffered a crushing defeat in the subsequent elections to Theresa May who supported staying in Europe. What kind of ridicule is that the leaders’ earthquake triggered by the Brexit debate ended in the presence of the Remaining faction? The 2016 referendum left not only scars and antagonisms, but more importantly, the Irish border issue and Scotland, which all electoral districts support to stay in Europe. In order to preserve the British economy as much as possible, and at the same time to take care of the hardline Brexitists in the party, the staying patriarch Theresa May is riding a tiger and pushing hard to promote the gentle Brexit she advocates. This is a model of unthankful two-sidedness. This was originally a godsend opportunity for the opposition party in the parliament, but Brexit also caused civil unrest in the opposition Labor Party. In two elections for the party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, the former extreme leftist, relied on the Youth Labor Party when almost everyone in the party rebelled. Supporters defeated many opponents twice and kept the party leader's throne. Taking advantage of the Labor Party's chaos, Theresa May took the opportunity to launch a general election ahead of schedule, wanting to expand the majority of seats in the parliament, so as to have greater bargaining power in future Brexit negotiations. Unexpectedly, British voters made a big joke to May. As a result of the early election, the ruling Conservative Party lost the majority of seats in the parliament and formed a suspended parliament. Theresa May finally reluctantly relied on a small party of 10 in Northern Ireland, the Northern Ireland Unity Party, to form a cabinet to govern. This is almost a fatal blow to Theresa May’s Brexit cause, because it not only means that any of her Brexit agreements will be difficult to obtain strong support from the parliament, and because of being seized by the Northern Irish Unity Party, the North The border issue of love will become the most difficult problem.

So far, this Brexit drama is far from over. Theresa May worked hard after the EU countries to reach a draft agreement, but was repeatedly opposed by the party's hardline Brexitists and the Northern Ireland Unity Party, and she could not pass it. At the same time, the Remaining faction of the two parties in the parliament has successively defeated the government. In the parliament, they have successively passed the prevention of a hard Brexit (that is, there is no agreement to leave the European Union, and the trade relationship with the EU will be reduced to the WTO relationship. This will cause damage to the British economy within a few years. Major injury). How to play with Theresa May's Brexit plan, she can still sit in the position of Prime Minister for a few days is still confusing.

And this TV movie brought us back to the critical moment of the problem, the 2016 Brexit referendum. The movie tells one thing. How did a maverick anti-establishment madman lead the Brexitists to complete the biggest shocking change in the UK in the past 40 years?

Why? How?

Why do ordinary British people want to leave the European Union? Let us first talk about the relationship between the UK and the European continent. Since the Hundred Years' War between Britain and France, Britain finally gave up all the territorial claims of the European continent, especially the feudal relationship with the French king, and moved towards a diplomatic strategy of divide and rule across the sea. Since the 16th century, the British took advantage of the endless battles on the European continent and sailed to the world, eventually establishing the colonial system of the sunless empire, and it is still an important system of British diplomacy-the British Commonwealth. At the same time, relying on its alliance with the United States, Britain successfully led Europe to win two world wars and played a very important role in the post-war systems such as the United Nations and NATO. But from the bottom of my heart, the glorious history of British overseas conquests, the island has not been occupied by foreign enemies for hundreds of years, the separation of European affairs, and the special relationship with the United States have made the British people’s sense of national identity very prominent. The sense of identity with the European continent is not as prominent as France, Germany, Italy, Hobio and other countries.

But beginning in the middle of the twentieth century, Britain had to make a decision to join the European Union. The British overseas colonial system collapsed after World War II. The United States actually replaced the British world empire in all parts of the world. The Suez Canal crisis deeply touched the special relationship between Britain and the United States. At the same time, the British economy has been plagued by stagflation, and Europe's share of Britain's foreign trade is increasing, and the Commonwealth's trade avoidance is decreasing year by year. The rapid maturity of European integration has made the European Union the largest political power in Europe and a pole that the United States cannot ignore during the Cold War. The political and economic reality of Britain determines that it must join the European Common Market, use a broader market to obtain better economic benefits, and at the same time use Europe to maintain its status as a major power.

Cummings’ brilliance lies in that he abandons the elitist perspective of the Brexitists in traditional politics, and instead captures two issues that British people feel most deeply and directly: the EU’s control of the United Kingdom and the issue of immigration, and then nothing. Use it without mercy. From the most practical point of view, Britain’s accession to the European Union and the European Common Market has gained considerable benefits. London has actually become a bridgehead and financial center for foreign capital throughout Europe. The British economy and the vast European market have formed the basis for you and me. Have your close relationship. But the British people have taken these as they should. With the continuous expansion of the European Union in the 1990s, the repeated weighing of the pros and cons of Macmillan and Prime Minister Heath’s application to join the European Community now seems to be the obvious problems that have become more prominent today. . People complain about the influx of immigrants from Eastern Europe, love to have children, rob low-level jobs, and occupy British labor benefits; people complain that the European Union’s food regulations have made many traditional foods in the UK disappear from the table; people have accepted a large number of Eastern European Muslims and Muslims in the EU. The resentment of African immigrants; people's distrust of the EU bureaucracy, etc. The current dissatisfaction is often transformed into a conjecture about the good old days. The EU has become a punching bag for the current development issues in the UK. Cummings creatively invented the famous phrase "Every week we give the EU 350 million pounds, let us give this money to the National Health Service!" "Turkey's accession to the EU will bring 70 million immigrants!" This is not What superb lie can be falsified without a few knowledgeable people, but why do so many people believe it? Emotions triumph over reason, and perjury that caters to the people's original beliefs will be absorbed without thinking.

For the European Union, Britain’s economic strength is of course also very important to the European continent, but it also brings a lot of trouble. From the perspective of EU countries, especially the leaders of France and Germany, the United Kingdom has never joined the EU for true European integration and European identity. Instead, it has formed gangs to frequently obstruct further European integration efforts. Not joining the Schengen, not joining the Eurozone, requesting large discounts on budget contributions, a very different economic model, and maintaining a special relationship with the United States in military diplomacy over the EU, all indicate that the UK’s accession to the EU is purely for picking peaches to the greatest extent. Enjoy the benefits of the common market. Now that the United Kingdom is about to get divorced, then the European Union will simply get rid of the United Kingdom and accelerate the process of European integration, which is also a positive aspect that can be seen in a lose-lose situation.

In the film, the famous slogan: Take back control is discussed in a great length. In particular, the term Back captures how many older British people miss the British Empire in the past. Cummings, played by Benedict Cumberbatch, scoffs at traditional political thinking. He is determined to use new methods in the information age to find the possibility of subverting traditional politics. In the referendum, Cummings' propaganda strategy included "don't discuss immigration", "discuss business", "don't create the impression that this referendum is the final referendum", "discuss the European Court of Justice's large package" and so on. This shows how accurate this person gave me the impression of Europe among the large number of people who doubted or left the European Union. He used data tools, used users as experiments on popular social media, and used billions of inductive advertisements and phishing-style rewarded surveys to dig out voters who were originally far away from politics and uncertain. He succeeded.

Is restarting everything?

In any case, it is clear that although Brexit has a foreshadowing, it does not seem to happen inevitable. It is more like being spawned. In fact, the United Kingdom is also one of the few parliaments in the entire EU region where there is no extreme right-wing political party, which is enough to illustrate the rational sentiments of the British voters. However, Cameron chose to tie the referendum to the 2015 election under the pressure of a small group of hard-liners and far-right parties within the party, forcing the British people to vote on the sidelines and must express their position. Cummings himself also sneered at the referendum system in the film: "The referendum is the worst way to make a choice. It is divisive. It pretends that complex political issues have simple black and white binary answers, which can clearly show us. Knowing that there are more sophisticated and reliable ways to achieve political changes and reforms." But the referendum, which is not mandatory, has become the current British political system that is eager to throw away the pot in order to resolve political disputes. It just like the "I" who threw two sacks at Ma Dasan in "The Devil Is Coming", it threw this choice directly to the people irresponsibly. What's more frightening is that it has only two options: yes or no. There is no "I don't understand", no "wait and see", no "go away! Don't ask me". Shouldn't the referendum be such a major choice, shouldn't it set a higher threshold and a little more time?

The movie assumes a scenario. When Labor Party MP Joe Cox was assassinated to death by a Brexit supporter, Cummings’ opponent, Remains director Craig Oliver, and the shocked Cummings ran into the subway. Oliver confessed to Cummingstein his deep anxiety about this uncivilized, unreliable, and divided political civilization. Cummings denounced Oliver's pedantic: "The new politics is here! You and I don't know what it looks like, but you have to accept it." Oliver warned him: "Be careful what you want, you can't control it."

The film finally used the mouth of Cummings to predict the UK after Brexit in 2020. Cummings once again aimed at the existing political system. He said: "I pressed the reset to factory settings, but the same operating system was runnable. What made us fail was narrow selfishness and unimaginative short-sightedness." Question card from the chairman of the committee reviewing Brexit election fraud. Mins: "Aren't you a member of this political culture? This half-truth, simple answer, false promise?" This is simply a direct complaint of the film director against the populist political culture.

In retrospect, Britain once had the opportunity to lead the European Union with France and Germany and take the position of European leader, but due to the historical heritage of the British Empire and the self-esteem of the great power, it gave up. When I waited to see the European Common Market on the other side booming, I wanted to get a share of the pie, but I was humiliated twice by General de Gaulle. The United Kingdom did not give up and survived until Charles de Gaulle stepped down, and finally joined the European Community in 1973.

Now the British have removed the traffic lights and blocked themselves at the crossroads of history. This great country has taken the initiative to face a difficult choice.

PS: I have made a chat about this film, and friends who are interested can follow it. https://www.ximalaya.com/yingshi/13031268/153866561

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