"For strategically risky things, you must be conservative in tactics." This is my biggest feeling when I watch the German film "North Wall".
This is an extreme sports movie about mountaineering. It is a story about two German guys who failed and lost their lives in challenging the north face of the Eiger in the Alps. Judging from the plot, in fact, even if the mountain fails, they will not pay the price of their lives. What really counts them down is these 3 details:
1) When he first climbed the mountain, one of the people in the other group was smashed in the head by a falling stone. His later injury deteriorated and everyone retreated, and he was exhausted because of taking care of him.
2) There is a 40-meter cliff that needs to be crossed. After going up, Andy did not listen to Tony's suggestion to leave the rope and collected the rope; as a result, he was unable to cross when he retraced, and died on the spot.
3) In the end, the rope of the rescue team was not long enough, which caused Tony to hang to his death a few meters away from the rescue team.
Although there are always many unpredictable factors in things because of chaos theory, if you carefully analyze these factors, there are still some high-latitude gains. Putting aside the last of the above three factors (because it is completely powerless to influence the protagonist), the bottom reason for the first two factors is actually because they are too optimistic about things: the injured buddies think they can bring the injury to the top. , Andy feels that he does not need to come back or can still cross the past when he comes back. But that is not the case. "I thought..." The frequency of such words in various summaries is always very high-many things go wrong because of wrong predictions.
Let alone the small ones (there are always different reasons), but if you consider it from a higher dimension, there may be some rules. For example, in the movie, the incident of the north wall of the Eiger Mountain is extremely risky in terms of high probability. This is the premise and background, so this big background should be considered in the implementation of the following details-this is the strategy The above-mentioned "unspoken victory, first defeat" is also the origin of my feelings at the beginning of the article that "strategy is risky, and tactics must be conservative".
Reflecting in real life, there are actually many things that belong to this kind of strategic risk, such as starting a business, such as certain choices in the company's strategy, and even making friends, getting married, and having children. At this time we really need to be optimistic, but pure optimism is not a good thing (Andy in the film is too optimistic), but "strategic contempt and tactical emphasis." We must maintain awe of the future, take every step steadily, and seek our own balance between conservative and optimistic, so that we can go in the long run.
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