The melancholy winner: Impressions of "Big Short"

Trenton 2021-10-19 10:14:35

Since the 2008 financial crisis, there have been many books and films about the crisis, from the presentation process to the explanation of the reasons, and then in-depth analysis, from various perspectives. However, as a whole, most of them are viewed from a "God's perspective", such as "Big But Not Falling", which shows the entire process of the financial crisis from multiple angles. However, "Storm of Interest", which implies the financial crisis, focuses on the psychology of the parties involved and analyzes the human performance of people in the financial industry. In short, such works often show the panic, shock, pain and greed of a "loser" caught in a whirlpool. Compared with these works, "Big Short" does look a little different. Its focus is on the daily routines of seemingly winners, which makes this work quite interesting.

For Chinese investors who lack such a mechanism, “short selling” is a somewhat “immoral” investment method. Look at the A-shares plummeting after June last year. Investors focused on short selling domestically and abroad. Rumors, angry reprimands and hundreds of stories of conspiracy theories can be seen. In a recent interview, Soros said that he had shorted Asian currencies, which caused the domestic media to ignore the content of his entire interview and criticized it like chicken blood. In fact, "short selling" is just an investment method permitted by the rules. Some people use it to hedge risks, and some people use it to speculate. Rules are constantly being revised, such as restrictions on "naked shorts", such as the short-selling of financial stocks that was once prohibited during the financial crisis. Just imagine, if you find that the stock price of a company is seriously overestimated, it may even be that the management is making financial fraud, and then it is empty. As a long side, instead of reprimanding the management for being immoral, it is obviously typical The butt determines the irrational attitude of the head.

In "Big Shorts", several characters are portrayed. In fact, they are mainly the different performances of the three shorts. In terms of investment, there is a so-called "rear-view mirror" saying, that is, when all the dust settles, you can see from the rear-view mirror, what happened in the past is often clear. The financial crisis that broke out in 2008 is a typical example. Today, it seems so irrational for people to chase the subprime financial derivatives that triggered the crisis. However, just as it is said in the movie that "reality is like poetry, but people always don't like to read poetry." In many cases, it is not because people lack common sense, but because they always think that this game of drumming and spreading flowers can continue. Just like in the A-share bull market, when the main board quickly rushed to 5,000 points and the valuation of the ChiNext board was obviously outrageous, the old stockholders were reluctant to leave the market. The reason is not that they don’t really know the risks, but a fluke. Psychology, wait any longer, wait longer, I will leave after earning another 20%, and I will paralyze myself and give birth to some eternal reasons "this time will be different". In any country, real estate is regarded as a kind of stable investment. Indeed, historically, the real estate market of various countries has been in the middle of a slight adjustment for a long time, but the overall trend is upward, and even the law of periodic skyrocketing. Presumably, the Chinese have a deep understanding of this. For many years, people who believe or curse the decline in housing prices will eventually fall into the chagrin of not buying a house at that time. No, after housing prices have fallen for a period of time, recently, various places, especially Shenzhen and Shanghai, have set off another round of skyrocketing. At this time, you will mention the history of Tokyo housing price collapse and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. No one will listen, because "This time is different", "China's national conditions are different".

The opening of "Big Short" is not as straightforward as "Big But Not Falling". It made some preparations. From the 2005 opening when Americans believed that the real estate market was bound to prosper, it also mentioned Greenspan's optimism at the time and was familiar with that period. People in history know that in 2005, Greenspan's optimistic judgment in Congress has become a classic that was constantly criticized and ridiculed when analyzing the financial crisis. However, this was not the case at the time. The real estate market was extremely prosperous and the threshold for mortgages was surprisingly low. What should we do about the risks involved? As a result, financial derivatives appeared on the market, and they became more and more complicated. They were called "risk diversification". These products were packaged and bought by global investors and then resold. Everyone was happy to beat the drums and spread the flowers. In this process, some people inevitably screamed for risks, but they were all quickly drowned in the joys and laughter of prosperity. However, not everyone is happy to be a person who declares the truth. Instead of strenuously waking up people who pretend to be asleep, it is better to use financial rules to make money. This film introduces three short-selling forces. Of course, the one who acts as the declarant in the film should also be counted. What's interesting is that they are very different from character to background, and they are not the same kind of people.


There is a general fund manager who is a "rocket scientist", through data investigation, careful reasoning to discover investment opportunities, and then go with the flow of short subprime mortgage products, for him, all this seems more like a habit.


There are also seemingly more traditional hedge funds stationed in financial institutions. The leader is a cynic. They always appear emotional and exposed. Unlike "Rocket Scientists," they are willing to communicate with people, conduct on-site investigations, and conduct on-site interviews. First-hand information.



There are also two small people in the industry. To put it bluntly, their status is that no one will kill them, but precisely because of this they have nothing to do with the existing interest structure, their thinking is more open, and they are more daring to take risks, plus one The assistance of a financial "hermit" has also joined the battle for shorting subprime products.


Gosling's sales are a typical financial shark. As long as there are investment opportunities, they are sold to customers, regardless of whether they are sold to ghosts or people.

The three seemingly different portrayals of shorts also show the so-called "short selling" is just an investment method. The shorts have different starting points, especially the cynical one played by Steve Farrell. Is complicated. As a financial investor, it is his instinct to capture investment opportunities, but he also carries some idealism and moral bottom line. At the same time, the suicide of financial practitioners’ family members also makes him have complicated feelings for the financial industry. The investigation found that when the operating mechanism behind subprime mortgages is so dirty, short selling is making money, and at the same time it is a declaration of war. Therefore, the various forces selected in this film are also linked from all angles. The "Rocket Scientist" focuses on the data and reflects that the subprime mortgage trap can be seen from the surface, but the one played by Bell is "otaku". So they became cynical, and they were the only people who rushed around and talked to reveal the story behind the subprime mortgage. As for the combination of the two young men and the calm old bird played by Brad Pitt, it shows a variety of ways to play as a guest. Indeed, the decision to short a rating of A or above is often a new born calf daring to think. Of course, only veterans like Brad Pitt can speak at a higher height, such as the pressure that we are suppressing the U.S. economic collapse, and set a tragic tone for the ending. Yes, they are the winners, but they are all under pressure before victory. One of them is social phobia and the other is cynical. There are also two happy stunners. In the end, he felt the same silence in the Lehman Endgame, and suddenly raised the style of the film, and everyone seemed very melancholy. This is what I admire most about this film. Every character is indispensable. If you say what he should say and do what he should do, everything is natural. If a movie If the rhythm is right, then the level will remain the same.

At the same time, the film also has some good techniques. For example, the person in the film directly "talks" with the audience. This technique has been used in many movies. Its characteristic is that it creates a sense of absurdity that spans time and space, and every financial crisis in hindsight is an absurd drama in itself, so the use of this technique in this film is really too appropriate. And such absurd dramas are always staged in turns around the world, and after the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, less than a year, starting in March 2009, a new bull market in the US market set sail, and at the same time a global relaxation Money is the wave of economic stimulus. Until recently, the U.S. bull market has been around for seven years. At this time, the global debt crisis has been one after another. Commodities have plummeted, and the valuation of the U.S. stock market has also been higher than the historical average. A new crisis seems to be just around the corner. This time, who can be spared?

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Extended Reading

The Big Short quotes

  • Lawrence Fields: [barging in] We have no confidence in your ability to identify macro-economic trends.

    Michael Burry: You flew here to tell me that? Why? Every, e-e-anyone can see there's a real-estate bubble.

    Lawrence Fields: Actually, no one can see a bubble, that's what makes it a bubble.

    Michael Burry: That's dumb, Lawrence. There's always markers.

  • Jared Vennett: Now their foot's on fire and they think their steak is done, and you're surprised?

    Mark Baum: That's not stupidity, that's fraud.

    Jared Vennett: Tell me the difference between stupid and illegal, and I'll have my wife's brother arrested.