The melancholy winner: Impressions of "Big Short"
Trenton 2021-10-19 10:14:35
For Chinese investors who lack such a mechanism, “short selling” is a somewhat “immoral” investment method. Look at the A-shares plummeting after June last year. Investors focused on short selling domestically and abroad. Rumors, angry reprimands and hundreds of stories of conspiracy theories can be seen. In a recent interview, Soros said that he had shorted Asian currencies, which caused the domestic media to ignore the content of his entire interview and criticized it like chicken blood. In fact, "short selling" is just an investment method permitted by the rules. Some people use it to hedge risks, and some people use it to speculate. Rules are constantly being revised, such as restrictions on "naked shorts", such as the short-selling of financial stocks that was once prohibited during the financial crisis. Just imagine, if you find that the stock price of a company is seriously overestimated, it may even be that the management is making financial fraud, and then it is empty. As a long side, instead of reprimanding the management for being immoral, it is obviously typical The butt determines the irrational attitude of the head.
In "Big Shorts", several characters are portrayed. In fact, they are mainly the different performances of the three shorts. In terms of investment, there is a so-called "rear-view mirror" saying, that is, when all the dust settles, you can see from the rear-view mirror, what happened in the past is often clear. The financial crisis that broke out in 2008 is a typical example. Today, it seems so irrational for people to chase the subprime financial derivatives that triggered the crisis. However, just as it is said in the movie that "reality is like poetry, but people always don't like to read poetry." In many cases, it is not because people lack common sense, but because they always think that this game of drumming and spreading flowers can continue. Just like in the A-share bull market, when the main board quickly rushed to 5,000 points and the valuation of the ChiNext board was obviously outrageous, the old stockholders were reluctant to leave the market. The reason is not that they don’t really know the risks, but a fluke. Psychology, wait any longer, wait longer, I will leave after earning another 20%, and I will paralyze myself and give birth to some eternal reasons "this time will be different". In any country, real estate is regarded as a kind of stable investment. Indeed, historically, the real estate market of various countries has been in the middle of a slight adjustment for a long time, but the overall trend is upward, and even the law of periodic skyrocketing. Presumably, the Chinese have a deep understanding of this. For many years, people who believe or curse the decline in housing prices will eventually fall into the chagrin of not buying a house at that time. No, after housing prices have fallen for a period of time, recently, various places, especially Shenzhen and Shanghai, have set off another round of skyrocketing. At this time, you will mention the history of Tokyo housing price collapse and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. No one will listen, because "This time is different", "China's national conditions are different".
The opening of "Big Short" is not as straightforward as "Big But Not Falling". It made some preparations. From the 2005 opening when Americans believed that the real estate market was bound to prosper, it also mentioned Greenspan's optimism at the time and was familiar with that period. People in history know that in 2005, Greenspan's optimistic judgment in Congress has become a classic that was constantly criticized and ridiculed when analyzing the financial crisis. However, this was not the case at the time. The real estate market was extremely prosperous and the threshold for mortgages was surprisingly low. What should we do about the risks involved? As a result, financial derivatives appeared on the market, and they became more and more complicated. They were called "risk diversification". These products were packaged and bought by global investors and then resold. Everyone was happy to beat the drums and spread the flowers. In this process, some people inevitably screamed for risks, but they were all quickly drowned in the joys and laughter of prosperity. However, not everyone is happy to be a person who declares the truth. Instead of strenuously waking up people who pretend to be asleep, it is better to use financial rules to make money. This film introduces three short-selling forces. Of course, the one who acts as the declarant in the film should also be counted. What's interesting is that they are very different from character to background, and they are not the same kind of people.
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Lawrence Fields: [barging in] We have no confidence in your ability to identify macro-economic trends.
Michael Burry: You flew here to tell me that? Why? Every, e-e-anyone can see there's a real-estate bubble.
Lawrence Fields: Actually, no one can see a bubble, that's what makes it a bubble.
Michael Burry: That's dumb, Lawrence. There's always markers.
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Jared Vennett: Now their foot's on fire and they think their steak is done, and you're surprised?
Mark Baum: That's not stupidity, that's fraud.
Jared Vennett: Tell me the difference between stupid and illegal, and I'll have my wife's brother arrested.