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As someone who is not very politically sensitive, I usually watch some political thrillers that are borderline ballistic.
This is the first time I have touched on a serious topic like "Brexit".
If some of the points are naive and superficial, please bear with them.
We all know that as early as 2017, the United Kingdom has set the time for the official withdrawal from the European Union at midnight on March 29, 2019.
However, the storm that swept the entire British peninsula did not stop.
On the evening of the 15th in the UK, the British House of Commons rejected the "Brexit" agreement with 432 votes against and 202 votes in favour, and Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the UK's largest opposition Labour Party, submitted a motion of no confidence in the government.
Jeremy Corbyn has said that once the "Brexit" agreement is rejected, a vote of no confidence in Mrs May's government will be submitted, forcing the other party to call an early election.
If the House of Commons passes a no-confidence vote, the new government must be formed within 14 days and needs to be supported by more than half of the members; if it fails to get the support of more than half of the members, the parliament will be dissolved and the general election will be held early.
Also, Brexit could be cancelled if the Brexit deal vote fails.
Foreign media summarized several possibilities that the British government may face in the future.
1. A no-deal Brexit, of course, without incident.
2. Re-negotiation, if some MPs object to the withdrawal agreement, renegotiate, may delay Brexit, and submit a delay application to the EU.
3. In the general election, two-thirds of the parliamentarians must support to start the general election. Even if the parliament agrees, it will take 25 working days.
4. No-confidence vote, as mentioned above.
5. The referendum again, even if the British government is willing to vote, it is impossible to hold it before March 39. Because the relevant laws for launching the referendum stipulate that there must be new legislation, which can determine who can vote, anyway, time does not allow.
Is it a bit big, I decided to stop, or I don't understand, let's just talk about the movie.
"Brexit: Unreasonable War"
"Brexit: Unreasonable War" is a TV movie broadcast on British TV 4, which tells the story of what happened during the Brexit referendum.
The English title of this film is "Brexit: The Uncivil War". After watching the film, I think it is more appropriate to call it a non-civil war than an unreasonable war.
This is the civil war that took place in the UK without smoke, and everyone up and down the UK was caught up in the maelstrom of Britain's future.
The movie has a prototype character, which is this one, Dominic Cummings.
Except for the Mediterranean hairstyle, the similarity between Real Cummings and Curl is almost zero.
"Trainspotting" director Danny Boyle is somewhat similar to the original character.
Not to mention that the Chinese people do not know this great god who is scheming behind it, not even the British people.
In fact, this is the best way. For those who do big things, the less people know, the better.
Cummings studied Ancient and Modern History at Durham University and Exeter College, Oxford, where he graduated first.
A scholar who graduated from a prestigious school.
He consulted politically, but was never partisan; he once wrote a 240-page paper on how to transform Britain into an elite tech city.
He stayed out of politics for two years before joining the "Brexitists". He lives in seclusion on his father's farm. In addition to his work, he usually reads and meditates.
He doesn't ask for money, he doesn't ask for power, he just wants to do something for Britain.
Writing this, I remembered that there is a similar figure in China, Yao Guangxiao, the "prime minister in black" beside Zhu Di, Ming Chengzu.
This person is the most dangerous.
In the eyes of politicians who intend to leave the European Union, he is the sharpest spear, of course, it can also be said to close the door and put Cummings.
After all, in this kind of nuclear bomb-level muddy water, if something goes wrong, his political future will be affected.
It is only appropriate to use a "little person" like Cummings as a gunner. So, just do it.
Why was the politician above unwilling to do it, because at that time, wanting to leave the EU was to be an enemy of the entire British government.
The 40 million voters who left the European Union and those who remained in the European Union launched a battle for people.
Of course, if he wants to go out, there is an additional condition, and he has the final say.
Because he hates dealing with those "stupid" politicians the most, but in politics, you can't get around these politicians.
Where there are people, there will be rivers and lakes, and there will be infighting.
The first contest revolves around the way of the election.
The traditional way is to have direct contact with voters, door-to-door propaganda, opening booths, and putting up posters. In one word, it is "ground war."
And to win more parliamentarians, the more parliamentarians stand, the greater the chance of winning.
For example, this fat-hearted Brexiteer Banksy believes that whoever has money has power. He followed the old school canvassing route above.
And Cummings is fighting an "online war."
In his words, hacking into the political system and reprogramming the system to work for him.
He wants to play a big game. He wants to change the political situation, establish a new world order, and rebel against the establishment.
He wins.
In the second contest, he VS the Brexit Committee.
The committee couldn't control him and wanted to kick him out.
why? Mr Cummings said the current prime minister was not fit to be prime minister and the politicians on the committee were scared.
For Cummings, there is nothing to fear, he is single-minded about Brexit.
In the end, the chairman of the committee was kicked out.
He wins again.
Once the internal worries are resolved, the external problems must be resolved.
Cummings found the winning tool.
What is micro-targeting?
It is an algorithm that involves big data that we are very familiar with. It integrates massive information in social platforms and conducts analysis and integration.
According to users' likes, clicks, and share rates, Internet algorithms study users' behavior and even psychology.
To put it bluntly, it can tailor messaging to voters.
It has moved away from the battle between the left and the right, but a confrontation between the old and the new.
The algorithm has helped Cummings find 3 million votes, 3 million people who never voted, and 3 million "potential voters" who have never appeared in any voter data.
The two sides fought fiercely, and the vote war officially kicked off.
Both sides know what kind of tactics the other will use, such as the Remainers, who will start canvassing from the middle, focusing on job opportunities and the economy.
And the Brexiteers headed by Cummings avoided the main battlefield of the Remainers.
He cited "Sun Tzu's Art of War: Nine Lands" to draw the attention of the Remainers elsewhere.
Remain means we will lose a lot of things we love; only Brexit will bring back control.
Among these voters, the center of contention is those swing voters, just like those "swing states" in the U.S. general election.
Remainers play rational cards, use data and forecasts to win over, and speak with facts.
The Brexit camp mainly plays the irrational card, catering to the inner needs and emotional resonance of voters.
How can rationality triumph over irrationality in this war?
Which side can attract these voters, which side is the ultimate winner.
Of course, these are not enough, and some heavyweight spokespersons are needed.
Such as former British Justice Secretary Michael Gove.
Like Boris Johnson, the "British Trump".
This kind of political activity must require some big figures to endorse it on the platform. The preparations have been completed, and it is time to focus on the voters.
Cummings is really a smart guy, his main direction is very clear, those "forgotten" potential voters.
It's not that he disdains launching a ground war, but that he knows that his ground war must be steady, precise and ruthless.
Who will win those swing voters, the answer is already known at the polling meeting of the Remainers in the film.
There are 6 levels of social classification commonly used in the UK, A, B, C1, C2, D, E.
The people who participated in this polling exchange meeting came from these 6 levels.
34% of voters belong to the swing faction, the woman standing above belongs to this faction, they have never been recognized in society, they have nothing.
Cummings' slogan "Take back control" (take back control) is catering to their psychological needs.
The Remainers are destined to lose in this canvassing battle, and the consequences have been planted decades ago. After all, all the responsibility can be pushed to the EU.
I think everyone is well aware of the destructive power of irrationality.
Just like what the director of Remain said to Cummings at the end of the film, everyone no longer trusts everyone else, people no longer listen, only scream.
Whoever roars the loudest and fiercest will be heard, and Pandora's box has been opened.
No one can control what comes out of it, and neither can Cummings.
If it is said that who is the happiest in this battle, it would be Cameron. He resigned and successfully dumped the blame. Didn't you hear him humming a ditty?
What did Cummings get? He got nothing.
Is his Brexit prediction flawless? Wrong, if you don't put the variable human, it's not perfect.
Is it the beast he unleashed? Could it be that the beast has been hiding in our hearts and spying on us, waiting for an opportunity to counterattack?
-FIN - Public account: Xiaoxianmovie (xiaoxianmovie)
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