MBS, risk control, VaR model, leverage

Lois 2022-04-22 07:01:19

The entire contents of our ledger at a given time. These assets are revalued using volatility that overflows the standard value-at-risk model (the standard VaR model).

How much volatility? On the basis of the volatility of historical data, it is enlarged by 10%-15%. The expected loss will exceed the company's current market value.

These are historical volatility index limits upon which our entire trading model relies, operating leverage is so high that once volatility exceeds these limits, asset values ​​plummet.

Why can I sit in this position now? My job is to predict the melody of the music in the coming week, month and year

The mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are packaged and sold, and assets of different risk levels are packaged and sold. It takes one month for the company to rate the product risk, and the asset is held for a long time. The underlying asset is a mortgage loan, and the financial leverage is too high, even exceeding the transaction limit, which makes the risk early warning mechanism ineffective.

Mortgage valuations drop by 25%, and the losses will be higher than the company's market value.

Quick shots, good brains, and cheating.

Selling worthless assets to others and losing the counterparty

A bridge saved people 1531 years.

Trader, successfully ruined his job.

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Extended Reading

Margin Call quotes

  • John Tuld: So you think we might have put a few people out of business today. That its all for naught. You've been doing that everyday for almost forty years Sam. And if this is all for naught then so is everything out there. Its just money; its made up. Pieces of paper with pictures on it so we don't have to kill each other just to get something to eat. It's not wrong. And it's certainly no different today than its ever been. 1637, 1797, 1819, 37, 57, 84, 1901, 07, 29, 1937, 1974, 1987-Jesus, didn't that fuck up me up good-92, 97, 2000 and whatever we want to call this. It's all just the same thing over and over; we can't help ourselves. And you and I can't control it, or stop it, or even slow it. Or even ever-so-slightly alter it. We just react. And we make a lot money if we get it right. And we get left by the side of the side of the road if we get it wrong. And there have always been and there always will be the same percentage of winners and losers. Happy foxes and sad sacks. Fat cats and starving dogs in this world. Yeah, there may be more of us today than there's ever been. But the percentages-they stay exactly the same.

  • Will Emerson: Jesus, Seth. Listen, if you really wanna do this with your life you have to believe you're necessary and you are. People wanna live like this in their cars and big fuckin' houses they can't even pay for, then you're necessary. The only reason that they all get to continue living like kings is cause we got our fingers on the scales in their favor. I take my hand off and then the whole world gets really fuckin' fair really fuckin' quickly and nobody actually wants that. They say they do but they don't. They want what we have to give them but they also wanna, you know, play innocent and pretend they have no idea where it came from. Well, thats more hypocrisy than I'm willing to swallow, so fuck em. Fuck normal people. You know, the funny thing is, tomorrow if all of this goes tits up they're gonna crucify us for being too reckless but if we're wrong, and everything gets back on track? Well then, the same people are gonna laugh till they piss their pants cause we're gonna all look like the biggest pussies God ever let through the door.

    Seth Bregman: Do you think we're gonna be wrong?

    Will Emerson: [long pause] No, they're all fucked.

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