The contestants pick goat number one, and the host picks goat number two. Converting will win the car.
The contestant picks goat number two, and the host picks goat number one. Converting will win the car.
The contestants pick the car, and the host picks either of the two goats. Conversion failed.
So the probability of getting a car after switching doors is 2/3? !
But if the car is selected, there are two choices when the host opens the door, right? ?
The contestants pick the car, and the host picks either of the two goats. Conversion failed.
This sentence should also be changed to refer to the above!
The contestants pick the car, and the host picks the goat No. 1. Conversion will fail.
The contestants pick the car, and the host picks the goat No. 2. Conversion will fail.
So the probability is still 50%? ? ?
NO
is actually very simple
. At the beginning, the probability of the player choosing the sheep is 2/3, and the probability of the car is 1/3, right?
Then if the player chooses a sheep, the host has to open another door that is a sheep, and the remaining door is a car, and you can change the door to get a car, right?
Then if the player chooses a car, the host will open another door that is a sheep at will, and the remaining sheep in the store will change the door to get sheep, right?
Then when the player chooses for the first time:
the probability of selecting a sheep (2/3) is the probability of getting a car by changing the door, and the probability of
selecting a car (1/3) is the probability of getting a sheep by changing the door, right?
So without changing the choice, the probability of getting the car is still 1/3.
Change the choice, the probability of getting a car is 2/3, because the probability of choosing a sheep for the first time is 2/3, and if you choose a sheep, you will get a car if you change the door, so the probability of changing the door to get a car is 2/3
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