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three-door problem
Sigrid 2022-04-19 09:01:34
For the three-door problem, the host selection process is a process of re-transformation of the probability. Your conversion already includes the last probability, not a re-selection. Disrupting the re-election is the alternative. The probability of the first selection is to take 1 from C3. After eliminating a wrong answer, if the probability remains unchanged, the probability continues to take 1 from C3. If you switch, it is equivalent to thinking that your selection is not correct, and the last selection was not correct. The correct probability is 2 for C3. So if you convert it is 2/3, if you don't convert it is 1/3
Extended Reading
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[Micky gives Jill her fake ID for the Vegas casinos]
Jill Taylor: Uh, I don't like my name.
Micky Rosa: Why not?
Jill Taylor: 'Sierra Sommers.' Do I look like a Sierra?
Micky Rosa: Well, you have a lot of clever outfits. You'll figure it out.
Kianna: Just pretend you don't speak English. Then you don't have to change your hair.
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[Micky talks to the team one last time before they play the Vegas casinos]
Micky Rosa: At all times, you don't know each other. Let me say that again, you do not... know each other... ever. Oh, and what's our motto?
Jill Taylor: Don't get caught counting.
Fisher: Don't get caught counting.
Kianna: Don't get caught counting.
Micky Rosa: Thank you very much.