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three-door problem
Sigrid 2022-04-19 09:01:34
For the three-door problem, the host selection process is a process of re-transformation of the probability. Your conversion already includes the last probability, not a re-selection. Disrupting the re-election is the alternative. The probability of the first selection is to take 1 from C3. After eliminating a wrong answer, if the probability remains unchanged, the probability continues to take 1 from C3. If you switch, it is equivalent to thinking that your selection is not correct, and the last selection was not correct. The correct probability is 2 for C3. So if you convert it is 2/3, if you don't convert it is 1/3
Extended Reading
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[Ben does quick math at his job on two outfits for a man and his wife]
Husband: What's this gonna run us?
Ben Campbell: Oh, well, uh, let's see, the belt's $49.95, minus 15%. The jacket's $589,99. The pants, $285,99, minus 10% on both. Unfortunately, the shirt's not on sale, but I can knock off 5% from the $69,99. The shoes were just marked down from $155, so you're looking at $1,042.68.
Ben Campbell: [the couple stare at Ben's adding abilities as he replies] I'm really good with numbers.
Husband: Yeah.
Wife: I guess so.
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[Ben see's Jill at his place of work shopping for a tie]
Jill Taylor: [Jill holds one up to Ben] This one's nice.
Ben Campbell: Yeah. Oh, yeah. This one has actually been treated with our patented Nano-Tex fabric protection, you know, to repel all liquids and stains.
Jill Taylor: Well, that's really functional.
Ben Campbell: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, it's pretty functional.
Jill Taylor: [Jill wraps the tie around Ben's neck] Face me. Stay still.
Jill Taylor: [Jill whispers to Ben] Despite being tempted by the Nano-Tex repellant, I'm actually not here for a tie, Ben. I came to see you.